پیش بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهری با استفاده از مدل تصمیم گیری چند معیاری (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان رشت)

محورهای موضوعی : آمایش سرزمین

حمیده آلیانی ¹ (دکترای محیط زیست، گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات).گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
حامد آلیانی ² (کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیای سیاسی – فضای شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه پیام نور، البرز، ایران.)
محدثه قنبری مطلق ³ (دکترای جنگلداری، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
کامران رحیمی ⁴ (کارشناس ارشد سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/01/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/05/16 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/08/01

کلید واژه: توسعه فیزیکی, رشت, منطق فازی, GIS, MCDM,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: گسترش فزاینده بدون برنامه ریزی شهرها یکی از مهمترین مسائل مدیریت شهری در کشورهای در حال توسعه است. زیرا توسعه روز افزون جامعه شهری و ساخت و سازهای بدون برنامه ریزی تغییرات زیادی در ساخت فضایی آن ها به وجود آورده که لزوم هدایت آگاهانه و طراحی فضای زیست مناسب برای شهرها را به دنبال داشته است. هدف از این پژوهش، یافتن مجموعه‍ای از پهنه های مکانی مناسب برای توسعه فیزیکی شهری است. روش بررسی: شهرستان رشت به عنوان مرکز استان گیلان تحت تحولات جمعیتی و شهرنشینی زیادی قرار گرفته است. به منظور برنامه ریزی بهینه و مناسب برای توسعه آتی شهری شهرستان مورد مطالعه 14 معیار اکولوژیکی و اقتصادی- اجتماعی بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان و روش دلفی در سال 1397 انتخاب گردید. سپس از روش ترکیب خطی وزن دار و فرآیند تحلیل شبکه ای برای پهنه بندی توان اکولوژیک منطقه برای توسعه شهری استفاده شد. یافته ها: نتایج حاصل از اجرای روش ارزیابی چند معیاری نشان داد که از کل سطح منطقه حدود 12/16 درصد دارای توان خیلی زیاد و حدود 54/29 درصد از منطقه به دلیل شرایط اکولوژیکی و بافت اجتماعی بدون توان می باشد. بحثت و نتیجه گیری: نتایج این مطالعه فرصت های مطالعاتی بیشتری را می تواند برای برنامه ریزان و تصمیم گیران فراهم نماید تا عوامل پیشگیرانه و کنترل کننده را در تصمیمات استراتژیک اتخاذ کنند. .

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: The unplanned expansion of cities is one of the most important issues of urban management in developing countries. Because the increasing development of urban society and unplanned constructions have created many changes in their spatial construction, which has led to the need for conscious guidance and design of suitable living space for cities. The purpose of this study is to find a set of suitable spatial zones for urban physical development. Method: Rasht city, as the center of Gilan County, has undergone many demographic and urban changes. In order to plan optimally and appropriately for the future urban development of the studied city, 14 ecological and socio-economic criteria were selected based on the opinions of experts and the Delphi method in 2018. Then the weighted linear composition method and network analysis process were used to zoning the ecological potential of the area for urban development. Findings: The results of the implementation of the multi-criteria evaluation method showed that the total area of the region is about 16.12% with very high capability. 29.54% of the region is unsuitable due to ecological conditions and unsustainable social tissue. Discussion and Conclusions: The results of this research can provide more study opportunities for planners and decision-makers to take preventive and controlling factors into strategic decisions.  

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