بررسی الگوی فضایی آسیب‌پذیری شهرها از زلزله و پیشنهاد الگوی بهینه (نمونه موردی: شهر کرمانشاه)
الموضوعات :
سهراب امیریان
1
(استادیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه پیام نور)
الکلمات المفتاحية: زلزله, کرمانشاه, مدل‌سازی, واژگان کلیدی: الگوی فضایی آسیب‌پذیری,
ملخص المقالة :
چکیده حوادث طبیعی بیش از پیش سکونتگاه های انسانی به ویژه شهرهای بزرگ را با خطر بحران روبرو ساخته است. از یک سو، رشد شتابان شهرنشینی سبب بارگذاری و تراکم بیش از اندازه جمعیت، دارایی ها، تأسیسات زیربنایی، منابع تولیدی و خدماتی در شهرها شده و از سوی دیگر، عدم رعایت ظرفیت ها و استانداردها در ساخت و سازها و در برنامه ریزی و طراحی شهری باعث آسیب‌پذیر شدن شهرها شده است. از این رو، این پژوهش به مطالعه الگوی فضایی آسیب پذیری شهرها در زمان زلزله و ارائه الگوی بهینه در شهر کرمانشاه پرداخته است. روش پژوهش ترکیبی از روش‌های توصیفی و تحلیلی و نوع آن کاربردی است. اطلاعات مورد نیاز این پژوهش از طریق نتایج تفصیلی سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن، طرح‌های جامع و تفصیلی شهر کرمانشاه و همچنین استفاده از اسناد، مجله ها و کتاب های مرتبط با موضوع به دست آمده است. جهت تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزارهای AutoCAD، ArcGIS، Super Decisions و از مدل ANP که مدلی مناسب جهت پهنه بندی آسیب پذیری در مناطق شهری می باشد، استفاده شده است. نتایج این پژوهش معلوم کرد که مناطق مختلف شهر کرمانشاه به ویژه بخش های شمالی و جنوبی آن از لحاظ آسیب پذیری وضعیت مناسبی ندارند. بنابراین، نتایج این مطالعه می‌تواند به مدیریت بحران به ویژه جهت خدمات امداد و نجات و برنامه ریزان و طراحان شهری برای درک و اولویت بندی مسائل شهری و به ویژه ساماندهی بافت های فرسوده شهر و یافتن راه حل‌هایی برای رفع مشکلات کمک نماید.
منابع
Ahadnejad, Mohsen, Abolfazl Meshkini and Batul Noori (2007), Evaluation of vulnerability of marginal and informal settlements against earthquake using GIS (case study: Islamabad, Zanjan, informal settlement), Urban GIS International Conference, Amol.
Ahadnejad, Mohsen; Mehdi Gharkhloo, Karamatullah Ziari (2010), Modeling the vulnerability of cities against earthquakes using the process of analyzing hierarchy process in GIS environment (case study of Zanjan city), geography and development, NO.19, Zahedan.
Ahadnejad, Mohsen and Shahnaz Jalilpour (2012), Evaluation of internal factors affecting the vulnerability of urban buildings against earthquakes using GIS (case study: Khoi old city texture), Environmental Planning Quarterly, No. 20.
Akasha, Bigram (2004), Rudbar the day before yesterday, Bam Yesterday, Tomorrow ..., Abstract of The articles of the Conference on the Local Sustainable Development Prospects, Tehran Municipality.
Alexander, David, 2002, Principles of Emergency and management, oxford university press.
Avazeh, Azar and Nasrin Jafari (2006), Studying the Capabilities and Constraints of Educational Hospitals of, University of Medical Sciences of Zanjan in Crisis Management (Planning, Structural and Non-Occupational), National Conference on Management Improvement Strategies Crisis in unexpected accidents.
Bolin, R. (1982). Long term family recovery from disaster, Monograph Boulder Institute for Behavior Science.
Che-Wei, Chang. Cheng-Ru, Wu. Huang-Chu, Chen. (2009), Analytic network process decision-making to assess slicing machine in terms of precision and control wafer quality. Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing 25 (2009), Pages 641– 650.
Eiri, Abdul Jalal (1998) Planning to reduce earthquake effects at urban levels (Case study: Tehran 20th District), Master's thesis, Shahid Beheshti University.
Fallahi, Alireza (2004), Concept of Participation in the Development of Neighborhood Biomedical Spaces, Applied Scientific and Practical Conference on the Development of Urban Sustainable Urban Development Prospects, No. 8, Tehran, Tehran Municipality.
Farajzadeh Asl, Manouchehr, Mohsen Ahdinejad, Jamal Amini (2011), Evaluation of Urban Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake (Case Study: District 9 of Tehran Municipality), Urban and Regional Studies and Research, Third Year, No. 9.
Gay, William (2007). Fire Station Location: Analysis and Technology. Washington, D. C, (1987) International City Management Association: Jul.19p, MIS Report, Vol.19, No.7
Garcia-Melon, Javier Ferris-Onate, Jeronimo Aznar-Bellver, Pablo Aragones-Beltern and Rocio Poveda Bautista (2008), Farmland appraisal based on the analytic network Process, Jourmal of Global Optimization, Vol.42, PP, 143-155.
Gharakhlou, M., (2009), Crisis risk in urban slum, CAG, ETAVA, Canada, 25-31.
Graeme, F (2005).Geographic Information System for Geoscientist, Modeling with GIS, New York, Carter Publisher.
Gibson, Gary (1997). An Introduction to Seismology, Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 6, Number 5, MCB University Press, Emerald Group Limited.
Habib, Farah (1992) The Role of City Form to Minimize the Risks of Earthquake, Proceedings of the First International Conference on Natural Disasters in Urban Areas, Tehran, Office of Study and Planning of Tehran.
Hataminejad Hossein, Fathi, Hamid, Eshg abadi Farshid (2009), Evaluation of seismic vulnerability in the sampled city: District 10 of Tehran Municipality, Human Geography Research (Geographical Research): Summer, Volume 41, No. 68. Pages 1-20.
Hawarence, S., Bertrand, L. (1986), The human factor in high fire risk urban residential areas: A pilot study in New Orleans. Department of commerce, national fire prevention and control administration.
Houser, G., & Egenning, P. C. (1993). Risk analysis, First Edition Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. Oakland, USA.
Iranian Statistics Center, Kermanshah Statistical Yearbook, 2016.
Jalilpour, Shahnaz (2010), Evaluation of Urban Vulnerability of the Towns against Earthquake Using GIS. Case Study: Old Texture of Khoi City, Master's Degree in Geography and Urban Planning, Zanjan University.
JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) and the TDMMO (Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization), 2004, the comprehensive master plan study on urban seismic disaster prevention and management for the Greater Tehran Area in Iran. Main Final Report. Pacific Consultant International, Tokyo.
Kreimer, Alcira; Margaret, Arnold; and Anne Carlin (2003), Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk. The World Bank Disaster Management Facility. Washington, D.C.
Lantada. L.G. Pujades. And A.H. Barbat. (2008), Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation through GIS Techniques. Application to Barcelona City, Spain. World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. October 12-17, Beijing, China.
Lewis M. Branscomb (2006) “Sustainable Cities: Safety and Security” Technology in Society, Vol. 28, issue 1-2, Jan.-Apr. pp 225-234.
Mahdian, Farid (2002), Vulnerability of Tehran buildings against earthquake and how to reduce vulnerability, Proceedings of The First Construction Seminar in the Capital, Tehran University.
Martinelli A, Cifani G.2008. Building Vulnerability Assessment and Damage Scenarios in Celano (Italy) Using a Quick Survey Data-based Methodology, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 28:875-889.
Mc Conkey, D. (1987), Planning for uncertainty, Business Horizons Journal 30: 40-45.
Montoya, L.; Choguill, C.; Masser, Ian. (2005), Management of natural hazard risk in Cartago, Costa Rica. Published in, Habitat International, Vol. 29, No. 3, p.493-509. ISSN 1873-5428.
Mohammadi Ahmadiani, Jamal; Zahra Sahraeian; Faramarz Khosravi (2010), The Role of Factors Affecting Physical Vulnerability in Jahrom City Against Earthquake, Applied Geosciences Researches, No. 17, 121-143.
Mohammadi Lord, Abdolmahmood (2009), ANP Network Analysis Processes and AHP Hierarchy Analysis, Alborz Faradanesh Publications, Tehran.
Movahhed, Ali, Mohammad Ali Firoozi and Ayoob Isafi (2012), Investigating the vulnerability of urban buildings against earthquakes using the inverse hierarchical model in Geographic Information System, Urban Research & Planning Magazine, Third Year, No. 11, 115-136.
Nakabayashi, Itsuki (1994), “Urban Planning Based on Disaster Risk Assessment,” In Disaster Management in Metropolitan Areas for the 21st Century, Proceeding of the IDNDR Aichi/Nagoya International Conference, 1-4 November, Nagoya, Japan, PP. 225-239.
Olsen GR1, Carstensen N, Hoyen K. (2003), Humanitarian crises: what determines the level of emergency assistance? Media coverage, donor interests and the aid business, Disasters. 2003 Jun; 27(2):109-26.
Organization of Municipalities and Villages of the Country (2006), Introduction to Crisis Management, Humanities and Social Sciences Research Institute, Center for Urban and Rural Studies and Services, Tehran.
Rafieian, Mojtaba, Issa Ebrahimzade, Seyed Ahmad Hosseini, Dimen Kashefi Doost (2017), Spatial Assessment and Analysis of the Physical Status of Housing in Piranshahr Urban Sites, Journal of Geography and Regional Development, Fifteenth, No. One, Spring and Summer, 2017, Issue 2, Pages 51-76.
Sabzab Arvand Consultant Engineers (2008), First Phase Studies of Khuzestan City's Comprehensive Immunization, Immunization of Masjed-e Soleiman City to Natural Disasters, Provincial Government of Khuzestan, Ahvaz.
Saaty, R.W., 2003. Decision Making in Complex Environment: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Decision Making and the Analytic Network Process (ANP) for Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback. www.Superdecisions.com
Shadi talab, Zhaleh(1991), "Social Dynamics Of Disaster Mitigation" Published in Proceeding of the first international conference Seismology and Earthquake Engineering., January 1, 1991.
Shams, Majid and Omid Malek Hosseini (2010), The survey on the necessity of constructing a new city around the city of Kermanshah, Human Resource Quarterly, Second Year, No. 3, Summer.
Shiea, Ismail, Kiuomars Habibi and Kamal Torabi (2010), Investigating the Vulnerability of the City Communications Network Against the Earthquake Using the IHWP and GIS Method. Case Study of Tehran Municipality, No. 6, No. 7, pp. 48-35.
Tavakoli, B., & Tavakoli, S. (1993). Estimating the Vulnerability and Loss functions of Residential Buildings, Journal of the International Society for the Presentational Mitigation of Natural Hazard 7(2)
United Nations Development Programme (2004) Reducing Disaster Risk, A Challenge for Development.
