Effect of Temporary and Permanent Shocks of Total Factor Productivity on the Demand for Agricultural Imports in Iran
الموضوعات :
زهرا توکلی
1
(بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
Sedigheh Nabieian
2
(Assistant Professor in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman)
محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی
3
(بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
سید عبدالمجید جلایی
4
(بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
الکلمات المفتاحية: Total Factor Productivity in Agricultural Sector, Blanchard-Quah technique, Productivity shocks, Demand for agricultural imports,
ملخص المقالة :
Economic theories show that the direction and magnitude of the fluctuations of economic variables depend on the type and magnitude of the shocks they are faced with. Various reasons are noted for fluctuations in demands for imports, including productivity shocks. Accordingly, this research was aimed at identifying the effects of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks of the agricultural sector on the demand for agricultural imports during the period 1982-2014. These shocks were divided by the Blanchard-Quah technique into two groups: permanent and temporary. Then, the effects of shocks on agricultural imports were studied by the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) Method. The results showed that, in the short and longrun, temporary and permanent TFP shocks of the agricultural sector have had a significant effect on the demand for agricultural imports, and the effect of temporary shocks was stronger than the effect of permanent ones. Therefore, if the policymakers seek to reduce the demand for agricultural imports, the agricultural TFP must continuously be incremented.
Baniasadi, M., & Mohseni, R. (2014). The effect of temporary and permanent productivity shocks on energy intensity in Iran. Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, 10(1), 41-65 (in Persian).
Bardalez, P. C., & Zea, Y. R. (2014). Terms of trade and total factor productivity: Empirical evidence from Latin American emerging markets, No 2014-012, Working PapersfromBanco Central de ReservadelPerú.
Bersch, J.,&Sinclair, T. M. (2011). Mongolia; measuring the output gap, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/79, Asia and Pacific Department.
Comijani, A. (2001). Regulations on access to agricultural products market in the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade and its effects on Iran's agricultural economy. Tehran: Publications of the Institute for Agricultural Research Planning and Economics (in Persian).
Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. Translated by Sadeghi, M. and Shaval Pour, S., Second Edition, Tehran: Imam Sadeq University Press (in Persian).
Haffmaister, A.W., &Roldos, J. (1997). Are business cycle different in Asia and Latin American? IMF working paper, 97/9.
Hemmati, A., &Mobasherpour, A. (2011). Sources of fluctuations in nominal and real exchange rates in an oil-dependent economy, Case study: Iran. Energy Economic Studies, 8(28), 135-151 (in Persian).
Imami-meybodi, A. (2005). Principles of Measuring efficiency and Productivity. Tehran: Institute for Business Studies and Research (in Persian).
Kooshesh, M.S. (2009). Investigating the effect of temporary and permanent shocks on nominal and real exchange rates in Iran. Unpublished thesis, Faculty of Economics, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman, Iran.
Malekan, M. (2013). Investigating the import function of selected products in agricultural sector of Iran. Unpublished thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran.
Mirzaei Khalil Abad, H., Naghavi, S., MehrabiBoshrabadi, H., &JalaeeEsfandabadi, A. (2009). Investigating the effect of monetary shocks on growth of agricultural sector in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 1(3), 123-146(in Persian).
Moghaddasi, R., Serafatmand, H., &Baghestani, A. (2010). Investigating the effect of productivity shocks and production gap on food prices in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 24(4), 509-517 (in Persian).
Mohammadi, T., &Akbarifard, H. (2008). Effect of productivity shocks on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Iranian Economy, 35,177-205. (in Persian).
Moulaei, M., &Uday, A. (2016). Investigating the effect of temporary and permanent income shocks on household consumption in Iran using the Blanchard-Quah method. Journal of Applied Economics Theory, 3(3), 95-114 (in Persian).
Pishbahar, A., Ghahramanzadeh, M., &Farhadi, A. (2015). The effects of inflation on production and growth of Iranian economy sectors with an emphasis on agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 9(1), 19- 41 (in Persian).
Soltani, S. (2013). Study the impact of temporary and permanent productivity shocks on Iran's business cycle with Blanchard- Quah approach. Unpublished thesis, Faculty of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran.
Tahami Pour, M., &Shahmoradi, M. (2007). Measuring total factor productivity growth in agricultural sector and serving its proportion of added value growth. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1(2), 317-332 (in Persian).
Veselkoa, A.,&Horvath J. (2008). Trade Balance and income shocks: Experience of transition economic. Springer. Verlag, Transition Studies Review, 15,241-249.
