Scenario planning of the future of Iran's power sports with a future research approach in the horizon of 2036
الموضوعات : International Journal of Finance, Accounting and Economics Studies
Mohhmadreza Moochani
1
,
Ali Zarei
2
,
Zahra Hajianzahaei
3
1 - Ph. D. Student, Islamic Azad University, Tehran center branch
2 - Perfessor in Islamic Azad University, Tehran center branch
3 - Assistant Professor in Islamic Azad University, Tehran center branch
الکلمات المفتاحية: Foresight, Zurkhaneh sports, Scenario planning, Cross-impact matrix,
ملخص المقالة :
Background: Foresight is widely used today. This term encompasses a wide range of approaches that improve the decision-making process, approaches that involve thinking about the long-term future.
Objective: The main goal of this research is to conduct a foresight study on Zurkhaneh sports by the horizon of 1415 (2036).
Methods: Two foresight methods, including structural analysis and scenario planning, were used to first identify the key uncertainties of Zurkhaneh sports in Iran and then develop future scenarios for this sport. The initial data for the research was collected through interviews with experts and a review of the literature and research background. This data was analyzed using expert questionnaires and the MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The experts in this research included 23 professors and specialists in Zurkhaneh sports.
Findings: The results of the t-test showed that 25 factors out of the initial 75 factors have the highest impact and high uncertainty. These 25 important factors were placed in a 25*25 matrix, which was then completed by the experts and analyzed using software, identifying 7 factors as key factors.
Conclusion: In the desirable scenario, which shows the best situation, among the 7 factors, except for the factor of establishing ancient sports leagues at the provincial level, the other factors are desirable. If conditions are met, the strongest probable scenario for Zurkhaneh sports in the country by the horizon of 1415 (2036) is considered.
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