شبیه سازی تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی با استفاده از سامانه های چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS) در شهرستان بابلسر
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیکمال عطایی سلوط 1 , احمدعلی کیخا 2 , محمود احمدپور 3 , سامان ضیائی 4 , فرهاد حسینعلی 5
1 - دانشجوی دکتری
2 - عضو هیئت علمی اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
4 - عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
5 - استادیار عمران دانشگاه تربیت دبیر شهید رجایی تهران
الکلمات المفتاحية: برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت, بابلسر, الگوسازی مبتنی بر عامل, تغییر پوشش کاربری اراضی, نظام چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS),
ملخص المقالة :
با توجه به نگرانی‌ها در مورد تغییرات زیست‌محیطی، تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی در دهه‌های اخیر مورد توجه جدی قرار گرفته است. یکی از رویکردهای مشهور در زمینه‌ی شبیه‌سازی، الگوسازی مبتنی بر عامل (ABM) است. ABM مجموعه‌ای از الگوهای محاسباتی برای شبیه‌سازی کنش و واکنش‌های عامل‌های خودمختار است. هدف از این تحقیق در سال 1395، شبیه‌سازی وضعیت تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی شهرستان بابلسر طی 30 سال آتی با استفاده از نظام چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS) است. نتایج نشان داد که محصولات دیم منطقه از الگوی کشت منطقه حذف خواهد شد و توسعه‌ی کشت مکانیزه محصول شلتوک اتفاق خواهد افتاد. سطح زیر کشت محصولات باغی منطقه از 3195 هکتار فعلی به بیش از 5585 هکتار رشد خواهد کرد. نتایج، کمک شایانی به مدیرانِ دارای نگاه استراتژیک به آینده‌ی تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی، خواهد کرد چراکه بازخورد سیاست‌ها و تصمیم‌های اقتصادی خود را می-توانند
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