اثرات الگوی کشت بهینه بر وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی حوضه آبریز زاینده‌رود: کاربرد مدل هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیحدیث کاوند 1 , سامان ضیائی 2 , مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی 3
1 - دانشگاه زابل، دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی
2 - عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
3 - استادیار گروه مهندسی ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان
الکلمات المفتاحية: الگوی کشت, شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی, بازده برنامه‌ای, فناوری‌های نوین,
ملخص المقالة :
مقدمه و هدف: منابع آب در حوضه‌ی آبریز رودخانه زاینده‌رود به دلیل خشکسالی و اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دهه‌های اخیر به شدت کاهش یافته و معیشت کشاورزان در سطح حوضه را با چالش همراه ساخته است. از این‌رو ارائه یک الگوی کشت هدفمند در جهت افزایش رفاه کشاورزان با توجه به پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه می‌تواند نقش موثری در بهبود اوضاع هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی سطح حوضه ایفا نماید.
مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه مدل شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی (مدل WEAP) با مدل بهینه‌یابی اقتصادی با هدف بیشینه‌سازی بازده برنامه‌ای کشاورزان با یکدیگر تلفیق شده‌است. همچنین، جهت برآورد نیاز آبی و عملکرد محصولات تحت بررسی، از ماژول MABIA استفاده شد.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد که در با بکارگیری الگوی کشت بهینه اقتصادی نسبت به شرایط کنونی، بازده برنامه‌ای برای مناطق نجف‌آباد، مهیار شمالی، لنجانات، کوهپایه-سگزی، اصفهان-برخوار و بن-سامان به ترتیب 14، 5، 15، 18، 15 و 20 میلیون ریال در هکتار افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین، با افزایش سهم بکارگیری فناوری‌های نوین آبیاری در الگوی بهینه نسبت به الگوی کنونی، پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه از جمله مقدار تقاضای تأمین نشده آب حدود 14 درصد کاهش و درصد قابلیت اطمینان تأمین تقاضای آب حدود 2 درصد بهبود خواهد یافت.
بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که می‌توان با بکارگیری یک الگوی کشت بهینه، تضاد دو هدف اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی را مرتفع و بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه را ممکن ساخت.
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