تاثیر جنگ دوم قره باغ بر محیط پیرامونی امنیتی ایران
الموضوعات :
معصومه فلاحتی
1
,
رحمت حاجی مینه
2
,
افشین زرگر
3
,
آرمین امینی
4
1 - PhD student of International Relations,Faculty of Law and Political sciences,Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University,Karaj,Iran.
2 - عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد واحد شرق تهران
3 - عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد واحد کرج
4 - دانشگا ه آزاد
الکلمات المفتاحية: بحران, رقابت های منطقه ای, محیط امنیتی, ژئوپولتیک, قفقاز جنوبی, جمهوری اسلامی ایران.,
ملخص المقالة :
در سالهای اخیر ثبات در محیط امنیتی منطقه آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، با چالشهای فزاینده ای روبرو بوده است.گرایش های ملی گرایانه،وجود بحرانها، چالشهای داخلی، ضعف در دولت ملت سازی و ورود بازیگران خارجی، محیط امنیتی آن را با پیچیدگی هایی روبرو کرده است. فروپاشی شوروی و تغییرات ژئوپولتیک صورت گرفته در منطقه قفقاز، عواملی هستند که باعث اهمیت و تاثیرگذاری بیشتر عوامل ژئوپولتیک این منطقه شده اند. با توجه به همسایگی و اشتراکات تاریخی و فرهنگی ایران با این منطقه و اثرگذاری تغییرات ژئوپولتیکی بحران اخیر بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران پرسش اصلی این است که جنگ دوم قره باغ بر محیط پیرامونی امنیتی ایران چه تاثیری گذاشته است؟ فرضیه اصلی مقاله چنین است که حضور بازیگران منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای و بعضاً دارای منافع متعارض در جنگ دوم قره باغ موجب تداوم بحران گشته و تاثیر این الگو مبتنی بر تداوم بحران، باعث امنیتی شدن و امنیتی ماندن محیط پیرامونی ایران در قفقاز جنوبی خواهد بود.این نوشتار براساس روش پژوهش کیفی و از نوع مطالعه موردی مبتنی بر چهارچوب نظری مدل بحران برچر انجام شده است و به این نتیجه رسیده ایم که بحران اخیر به دلیل تداوم، آثاری بر کشورهای منطقه به ویژه بر ایران، که منطقه قفقاز در محیط پیرامونی امنیتی آن قرار دارد، خواهد داشت و این وضعیت مانع از همبودگی اقتصادی و سیاسی در منطقه گشته و برای پیگیری منافع ایران در منطقه محذوریت ایجاد خواهد کرد.
Abbaszadeh Fathabadi,Mehdi,Moeinabadi Bidgoli,Hossein,Doosthosseini,Mahdiye, (1400), “Constructive Analysis of the Turn in Iran's Foreign Policy Towards the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis (2020) ”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 14, Number 2,pp.225-246,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2022.318774.449983),[in Prsian].
- Aghaei, Davoud, Noor Alivand, Yaser, (1398), “security environment and foreign and security policies; Presenting an analytical model”, Strategic Public Policy Studies Quarterly, Volume 9, Number 33. pp.. 22-2.(https://sspp.iran journals.ir/article_4312.html),[in Prsian].
-Afshordi, Mohammad Hossein, (1381), Geopolitics of the Caucasus and Iran's Islamic state foreign policy, first edition, Tehran, Guards Corps Command and Headquarters Academy, Research and Research Vice-Chancellor,[in Prsian].
-Amiri,mehdi,Falahi,Ehsan, (1401), “Geopolonomics of Iran's Bilateral Relation with Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan from 2013 to 2021 ”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 15, Number 2,pp.73-101,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2023.333666.450039),[in Prsian].
-Antal,John,(2022), 7 Second to Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of War fighting,Casemate Publisher,Available https://www.amazon.com/Seconds-Die-Military-Nagorno-Karabakh-Warfighting/dp/1636241239,(Accessed on:03/02/2022).
- Athari, Asadullah, Jahangiri, Saeed, (1397), “Study on Iran's geopolitical change on foreign policy (before and after the Islamic Revolution)”, Political Strategy Quarterly, second year, number 6, pp. 55-77.(doi:20.1001.1.25884565.137.2.6.3.7),[in Prsian].
- Athari, Asadullah, Rahmani,Fatemeh, (1401), “The study of the relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan;Challenges and Opportunity”, National Interest Studies Journal,Volume7,Number30, , pp. 49-77,[in Prsian].
-Brecher, Michael, (1382), Crisis in World Politics, Rise and fall of crisis, translator: Baluchi, Heydar Ali, First volume, Tehran, Strategic Studies Research Center,[in Prsian].
- Brecher, Michael, (1382), Crisis in World Politics, findings and case studies, translator: Qureshi, Mirfardeen, second volume, Tehran, Strategic Studies Research Center,[in Prsian].
-Dehghani Firouzabadi, Jalal, (1389), “Security Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South Caucasus”, Geopolitics Quarterly, No. 1,pp.208-239,(doi:20.1001.1.17354331.1389.6.17.7.3),[in Prsian].
-Ebrahimi,Morteza,Osuli Odlu,Qasem, (1401), “The Typology of Relations between Israel and the Republic of Azerbaijan:Strategic or Tectical”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 15, Number 2,pp.23-48,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2023.347626.450096),[in Prsian].
- Ebrahimi,Shahrooz,Kheiri,Mostafa,(1397),”Analysis of Russian Interests in the Caucasus Region (Case Study:Karabakh Crisis”Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 11, Number 2,pp.265-282,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2019.234286.449709),[in Prsian].
-Falahi,Ehsan,Omidi,Ali, (1396), “The foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South Caucasus,offensive or defensive?”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 11, Number 2,pp.417-433,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2019.231482.449701),[in Prsian].
- Ganj Khanlou, Javad, (1398), “Iran's political strategy in solving the Karabakh problem with an emphasis on securing national interests”, bi-monthly specialized scientific journal of research in art and specialized sciences, number 7,pp.35-45,(magiran.com/p2081853),[in Prsian].
- Ghorbaninejad, Ribaz, Hafez Niya, Mohammad Reza, Ahmadipour, Zahra, Qavam, Abdul Ali, (1393), “Study of the concept of conflict in the theories of international relations and geopolitics”, Strategy chapter, year 23, number 70,pp.265-291,(http://ensani.ir/fa/article/336823),[in Prsian].
- Golmohamadi,Vali,Azizi,Hamidreza,(1401),”The South Caucasus Regionalism of Iran's Foreign policy”Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 15, Number 1,pp.281-305,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2022.345811.450084),[in Prsian].
-Kalantari,Fathollah,Kavianifar,Peiman, (1399), “Prioritize the Threats toward the Islamic Republic of Iran through Southern Caucasus:Strategies and Countermeasures ”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 13, Number 2,pp.623-644,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2020.301239.449920),[in Prsian].
-Kolaee, Elahe,Khansarifard,Fahimeh, (1398), “Historical narratives and collective memory;Creating an identity or intensifying ethnic conflicts in the South Caucasus”, Scientific Quarterly of World Politics,Volume 8,Number3,pp.75-104,(doi:wp.2020.15284.2377/10.22124),[in Prsian].
-Kolaee, Elahe,Nezami,Maryam, (1398), “Pan-Turkism,Construction of Identity and the Formation of the Republicof Azerbaijan (1890-1920)”, Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 12, Number 2,pp.459-478,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2019.117370.449567),[in Prsian].
-Kolaee, Elahe, (1389), “Islamic Republic of Iran and Geopolitics of South Caucasus”, Geopolitics Quarterly, 6th year, 1st issue,pp.75-111,(doi:20.1001.1.17354331.1389.6.17.3.9),[in Prsian].
- Mearaji, Ebrahim, (1400), “The impact of identity conflicts in the escalation of political conflicts: a case study of the Karabakh crisis”, Middle Eastern Studies Journal, No. 104,pp.7-22,(magiran.com/p2384520),[in Prsian].
- Momeni,Majidreza,Rahimi,Omid,(1395),”Iran-Israel Confronation and Its Impact on the Expansion of Israel and AzerbaijanPolitical-Security Relations ”Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 10, Number 2,pp.415-431,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2018.210209.449655),[in Prsian].
- Naibian, Jalil, (1390), “A View on the Geopolitical Developments of Iran's Neighboring Regions (Central Asia, Caspian and Caucasus)”, Tabriz University Faculty of Literature and Humanities Journal, Spring and Summer, No. 2,pp.167-19,(https://tuhistory.tabrizu.ac.ir/issue_107_111.html),[in Prsian].
- Nosrati,Shahryar,Akhbari,Mohamad,Sarvar,Rahim,(1396),”The Feasibility Study of the Convergence of Iran and Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the 21st Century and the Presentation of Strategic Model with Lasting Peace Approach ”Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 10, Number 2,pp.449-466,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2018.137539.449618),[in Prsian].
-Pedin, Mohammad, Gholami, Korosh, Kivani Mehr, Leila, (1400),” Karabakh war and its impact on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, the first conference on law, political science and humanities,code:COI,exclusive:LPHCONF01-037,(https://civilica.com/doc/1217552),[in Prsian].
- Rasouli Saniabadi, Elham, Roostaei, Mojtaba, (1397), "Patterns of friendship and enmity and crises in the South Caucasus", Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 11, Number 1,pp.123-139,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2018.225771.449692),[in Prsian].
- Rashidi, Ahmed, Maleki, Mari, (1398), “Russia's interests and crises in the South Caucasus region”, Journal of Politics and International Relations, Volume 3, Number Five,pp.50-71,(https://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/1677422),[in Prsian].
-Siri,Neset,Aydin,Mustafa,Ergun,Ayca,Giragosian,Richard,Kakachia,Kornely,(2023),Changing Geopolitics of the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War.Prospect for Regional Cooperation and/or Rivarly , Chr.Michelsen Institute (CMI Report 2023:4)72p. Available https://www.cmi.no/publications/8911.,(Accessed on:Sep 2023).
- Soltaninejad,Ahmad,Salamatazar,Rahim,Osuli,Ghasem,(1395),”Provision of a divergent part of Turkiye in the relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan”Central Eurasian Studies Quarterly, Volume 9, Number 2,pp.289-308,(doi:10.22059/JCEP.2016.2016.60542),[in Prsian].
- Soraya, Jamshid, (1389), “Regional integration of South Caucasus; Obstacles and challenges from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, Journal of International Relations Studies, Autumn, No. 12. pp.169-197,(https://prb.ctb.iau.ir/data/prb/coversheet/cover_fa.jpg),[in Prsian].
-Sumbal, Malik Ayub,(2021),Tovuz Karabakh: A Comprehensive Analysis of War in South-Caucasus, Independent Publisher, Available https://www.amazon.com/Tovuz-Karabakh-Comprehensive-Analysis-South-Caucasus/dp/9692357406,(Accessed on:21/03/2021).
- Yavuz,Hakan, Gunter,Michael,(2022),The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict;Historical and Political Perspectives, Routledge publisher,Available at:https://www.routledge.com/The-Nagorno-Karabakh-Conflict-Historical-and-Political-Perspectives/Yavuz-Gunter/p/book/9781032198569,(Accessed on:01/07/2022).
