پاسخ مانگروها به افزایش پیش بینی شده سطح آب دریا ناشی از اثرات تغییر اقلیم
الموضوعات :
1 - استادیار گروه محیط زیست پژوهشکده خلیج فارس، دانشگاه خلیج فارس، بوشهر
الکلمات المفتاحية: افزایش تراز آب دریا, جنگل های مانگرو, تغییر اقلیم,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: در این مطالعه میزان آسیب پذیری و پاسخ اکوسیستم های مانگرو به اثرات پیش بینی شده تغییر اقلیم مورد بررسی و تجزیه تحلیل قرار خواهد گرفت. تعیین پاسخ اکوسیستم های جنگلی مانگروها به افزایش جهانی سطح آب دریا، درجه حرارت و تغییرات الگوی بارش ناشی از تغییر اقلیم بسیار پیچیده خواهد بود. انتظار میرود که این اکوسیستم ها پاسخی سینرژیک به ترکیبی از اثرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم ، فاکتورهای آنترپوژنیک و حوادث طبیعی نشان دهند. روش بررسی: در این پژوهش مشخص شد افزایش تراز آبی دریا محتمل ترین و بزرگترین تهدید ناشی از تغییر اقلیم بر جنگل های مانگرو خواهد بود. دامنه جرومدی و میزان تأمین رسوب در جنگل های مانگرو دو فاکتور عمده و موثر پاسخ مانگروها به افزایش تراز آبی دریا به شمار میروند. یافته ها: در صورتیکه پروسه های افزایش ارتفاع رسوب به عنوان پروسه های جبران وجود نداشته باشند، مانگروهای سمت دریا از بین خواهند رفت و هرچه دامنه جزرومدی منطقه ای بیشتر باشد مانگروها خسارات کمتری را متحمل می شوند. این پاسخ ها به توپوگرفی منطقه نیز بستگی دارد که امکان مهاجرت مانگروها را به سمت خشکی تعیین میکند. بسیاری از پاسخ های مانگروها به این اثرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم را نمی توان از یک مکان به مکان دیگر برون یابی کرد و ویژه یک منطقه خاص می باشند. بحث و نتیجه گیری: برخی از اقدامات سازگاری در مناطق ساحلی در مقابل اثرات تغییر اقلیم شامل طراحی سیستم های دفاع از مناطق ساحلی مثل خاکریز ها، کاشت و احداث جنگل های مانگرو، ساخت تاسیسات در مقابل سیل، عقب نشینی از خط ساحلی و مدیریت آرایش جدید ساحل، تهیه نقشه های ریسک و هشدار و آگاهی به ساکنین می باشد.
المصادر:
میرابزاده، پ. جنگل های مانگرو: زیستگاههای حساس با ویژگیهای استثنایی. کتاب طبیعت ایران، موزه آثار طبیعی و حیات وحش ایران، 1376، شماره 1، صفحات 81-78.
IPCC, 2007a. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M.Manning, Z. Chen, M.Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1-18.
IPCC, 2007b. Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J.Dokken and K.S.White, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 1032.
پورزواره، م. جنگلهای مانگرو. مجله سیمای محیط. 1384، شماره 14 و 15، صفحات 39-38.
دانهکار، ا. جنگلهای مانگرو جهان. فصلنامهی محیط زیست. 1374، جلد هفتم، شماره 2، صفحات 26-16.
دانه کار، ا. جنگلهای مانگرو ایران. فصلنامهی محیط زیست. 1375، جلد هشتم، شماره 2، صفحات 8- 23.
صفیاری، ش.. جنگلهای مانگرو، جلد اول: جنگلهای مانگرو در دنیا. انتشارات مؤسسهی تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، 1381، صفحه 263 .
M.S., and Takama. T., 2008. Perceptions of biodiversity, environmental services, and conservation of planted mangroves: a case study on Nijhum Dwip Island, Bangladesh. Journal of Wetlands and Ecological Management. 16, pp. 119-137.
زعیمدار، م.. بررسی بومسازگان حرا و جایگاه آن در ایران. مجلهی جنگل و مرتع، 1379. شماره 50، صفحات 70-66.
J.G., Dahdouh-Guebas. F., Bosire. J., and Koedam. N., 2001. Restoration and management of mangrove system- a lesson for and from the East African region. Journal of South African, Journal of Botany. 67, pp. 383-389.
Wells, S., Ravilous, C., Corcoran, E. 2006. In the front line: Shoreline protection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs. United Nations Environment Program World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33.
Primavera, J.H. 1997. Socioeconomic impacts of shrimp culture. Aquaculture Research. 28, 815-827.
Ong, J.E. and G.W. Khoon. 2003. Carbon fixation in mangrove ecosystem and carbon credits. Theme B from the East Asian Sea Congress: Essential Cross-Sectoral Processes and Approaches to Achieving Sustainable Development. Conference Bulletin, pp. 20–28
Houghton, L.G., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander B.A. (Eds.), 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.pp. 99-105.
Nicholls, R.J., Hoozemans, F.M.J., Marchand, M. 1999. Increasing food risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, 9, 69-87.
Jones, M. 2002. Climate change - follow the mangroves and sea the rise. National Parks Journal 46, 6.
McLeod, E., Salm, R., 2006. Managing Mangroves for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. pp. 90-108.
Field, C., 1995. Impacts of expected climate change on mangroves. Hydrobiologia. 295, 75–81.
Thomas, R., Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Kanagaratnam, P., Acuna, C., Akins, T., Brecher, H., Frederick, E., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Manizade, S., Ramamoorthy, H., Rivera, A., Russell, R., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Yungel, J., Zwally, J., 2004. Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica. Science. 306, 255–258.
Church, J., Hunter, J., McInnes, K., White, N., 2004. Sea-level rise and the frequency of extreme events around the Australian coastline. In: Coast to Coast ’04th Conference Proceedings Australia’s National Coastal Conference, Hobart, 19–23 April 2004, pp. 1–8.
Gilman, E., Van Lavieren, H., Ellison, J., Jungblut, V., Adler, E., Wilson, L., Areki, F., Brighouse, G., Bungitak, J., Dus, E., Henry, M., Kilman, M., Matthews, E., Sauni I., Teariki-Ruatu, N., Tukia, S., & Yuknavage, K.2006. Living with Pacific Island mangrove responses to a changing climate and rising sea level. United Nations Environment Programme. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies.pp.192-205.
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The physical Science Basis. Summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, p. 18.
Warrick R.A., 2007 .Proceedings of the ANZSEE conference on re-inventing sustainability: a climate for change, held 3e6 July 2007, Noosaville, Queensland, Australia. SimCLIM: recent developments of an integrated model for multi-scale, risk-based assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation. pp. 60-69.
Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J.M. & Co-authors, 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, pp, 120.
Warrick, R.A., Oerlemans, J., Woodworth, P.L., Meier, M.F., le Provost, C. 1996. Changes in sea level. In: Houghton, J.T., MeiraFilho, L.G., Callander, B.A. (Eds), Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp. 359-405.
Berdin, R., Siringan, F., Maeda, Y., 2003. Holocene relative sea-level changes and mangrove response in Southwest Bohol, Philippines. Journal of Coastal Research. 19, 304–313.
Lucas, R.M., Ellison, J.C., Mitchell, A., Donnelly, B., Finlayson, M.,& Milne, A.K. (2002). Use of stereo aerial photography for quantifying changes in the extent and height of mangroves in tropical Australia. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 10, 161–175.
Ellison, J., 2000. How South Pacific mangrovesmay respond to predicted climate change and sea level rise. In: Gillespie, A.,Burns,W. (Eds.),Climate Change in the South Pacific: Impacts and Responses in Australia, New Zealand, and Small Islands States. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands, (Chapter 15), pp. 289–301.
Nunn, P.D. 2000. Significance of emerged Holocene corals around Ovalau and Moturiki islands, Fiji, southwest Pacific. Marine Geology, 163, 345–351..
Woodroffe, C.D., 1995. Response of tide-dominated mangrove shorelines in northern Australia to anticipated sea-level rise. Earth Surface and Processing Land. 20, 65–85.
Ellison, J. 2004. Vulnerability of Fiji’s mangroves and associated coral reefs to climate change. Prepared for the World Wildlife Fund. Launceston, Australia: University of Tasmania. pp.35-78.
Lewis III, R.R., 2005. Ecological engineering for successful management and restoration of mangrove forests. Ecological Engineering. 24, 403–418.
Ross, M.S., Meeder, J.F., Sah, J.P., Ruiz P.L., & Telesnicki, G.J., 2000: The southeast saline Everglades revisited: 50 years of coastal vegetation change. J. Vegetation Science, 11, 101-112.
Wilton, K. 2002. Coastal Wetland habitat dynamics in selected New South Wales Estuaries. Volume 1. Ph.D. Thesis, Australian Catholic University, Fitzroy, Australia. pp. 125-137.
Saenger, P., 2002. Mangrove Ecology, Silviculture and Conservation. Kluwer, pp. 360.
Mcleod, E., Poulter, B., Hinkel, J., Reyes, E., Salm, R. 2010. Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. Ocean and Coastal Management, 53 ,507-517.
Ellison, J., & Stoddart, D. 1991. Mangrove ecosystem collapse during predicted sea-level rise: Holocene analogues and implications. Journal of Coastal Research, 7(1), 151–165.
Semeniuk, V. 1994. Predicting the effect of sea-level rise on mangroves in Northwestern Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 10(4), 1050–1076.
Cahoon, D.R., Hensel, P.F., Spencer, T., Reed, D.J., McKee K.L. and Saintilan, N. 2006. Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. Wetlands as a Natural Resource, Vol. 1: Wetlands and Natural Resource Management, J.Verhoeven, D.Whigham, R. Bobbink and Beltman, Eds., Springer Ecological Studies series, Chapter 12, 271-292.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., Sauni Jr., I., Tuaumu, S., 2007a. Trends in surface elevations of American Samoa mangroves. Wetland and Ecological Management. 15, 391–404.
Krauss, K.W., Cahoon, D.R., Allen, J.A., Ewel, K.C., Lynch, J.C., Cormier, N. 2010. Surface Elevation Change and Susceptibility of Different Mangrove Zones to Sea-Level Rise on Pacific High Islands of Micronesia. Ecosystems, 13, 129–143.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., Coleman, R., 2007b. Assessment of mangrove responseto projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental Monitoring Assessment. 124, 112–134.
Pilkey, O.H., Cooper, J.A., 2004. Society and sea level rise. Science. 303, 1781–1782.
Kennish, M.J. 2002. Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. Environmental Conservation 29 (1), 78–107.
Duke, N.C., Ball, M.C., Ellison, J.C., 1998. Factors influencing biodiversity and distributional gradients in mangroves. Global Ecological Biogeography, 7, 27–47.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., & Coleman, R. 2007. Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 124(1-3), 105–30.
Comeaux, R. S., Allison, M. a., & Bianchi, T. S. 2012. Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: Implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 96, 81–95.
Ellison, J. 2004. Vulnerability of Fiji’s mangroves and associated coral reefs to climate change. Prepared for theWorld Wildlife Fund. Launceston, Australia: University of Tasmania.
McKee, K.L., Cahoon, D.R., Feller, I.C., 2007. Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 545-556.
Semeniuk, V. 1994. Predicting the effect of sea-level rise on mangroves in Northwestern Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 10(4), 1050–1076.
Kumara, M. P., Jayatissa, L. P., Krauss, K. W., Phillips, D. H., & Huxham, M. 2010. High mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise. Oecologia, 164(2), 545–53.
Krauss, K.W., Allen, J.A., Cahoon, D.R., 2003. Differential rates of vertical accretion and elevation change among aerial root types in Micronesian mangrove forests. Estuary and Coastal Shelf Science, 56, 251–259
Rogers, K., Saintilan, N., Heijnis, H., 2005. Mangrove encroachment of salt marsh in Western Port Bay, Victoria: the role of sedimentation, subsidence, and sea level rise. Estuaries, 28, 551–559.
Li, S., Meng, X., Ge, Zh., Zhang L. 2015. Evaluation of the threat from sea-level rise to the mangrove ecosystems in Tieshangang Bay, southern China. Ocean and Coastal Management, 109, 1-8.
Etemadi, H., Samadi, S., Sharifikia, M., Smoak, J.M. 2015. Assessment of Climate Change downscaling and Non-stationarity on the Spatial Pattern of a Mangrove Ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1552-5.
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میرابزاده، پ. جنگل های مانگرو: زیستگاههای حساس با ویژگیهای استثنایی. کتاب طبیعت ایران، موزه آثار طبیعی و حیات وحش ایران، 1376، شماره 1، صفحات 81-78.
IPCC, 2007a. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M.Manning, Z. Chen, M.Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1-18.
IPCC, 2007b. Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J.Dokken and K.S.White, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 1032.
پورزواره، م. جنگلهای مانگرو. مجله سیمای محیط. 1384، شماره 14 و 15، صفحات 39-38.
دانهکار، ا. جنگلهای مانگرو جهان. فصلنامهی محیط زیست. 1374، جلد هفتم، شماره 2، صفحات 26-16.
دانه کار، ا. جنگلهای مانگرو ایران. فصلنامهی محیط زیست. 1375، جلد هشتم، شماره 2، صفحات 8- 23.
صفیاری، ش.. جنگلهای مانگرو، جلد اول: جنگلهای مانگرو در دنیا. انتشارات مؤسسهی تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، 1381، صفحه 263 .
M.S., and Takama. T., 2008. Perceptions of biodiversity, environmental services, and conservation of planted mangroves: a case study on Nijhum Dwip Island, Bangladesh. Journal of Wetlands and Ecological Management. 16, pp. 119-137.
زعیمدار، م.. بررسی بومسازگان حرا و جایگاه آن در ایران. مجلهی جنگل و مرتع، 1379. شماره 50، صفحات 70-66.
J.G., Dahdouh-Guebas. F., Bosire. J., and Koedam. N., 2001. Restoration and management of mangrove system- a lesson for and from the East African region. Journal of South African, Journal of Botany. 67, pp. 383-389.
Wells, S., Ravilous, C., Corcoran, E. 2006. In the front line: Shoreline protection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs. United Nations Environment Program World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33.
Primavera, J.H. 1997. Socioeconomic impacts of shrimp culture. Aquaculture Research. 28, 815-827.
Ong, J.E. and G.W. Khoon. 2003. Carbon fixation in mangrove ecosystem and carbon credits. Theme B from the East Asian Sea Congress: Essential Cross-Sectoral Processes and Approaches to Achieving Sustainable Development. Conference Bulletin, pp. 20–28
Houghton, L.G., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander B.A. (Eds.), 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.pp. 99-105.
Nicholls, R.J., Hoozemans, F.M.J., Marchand, M. 1999. Increasing food risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, 9, 69-87.
Jones, M. 2002. Climate change - follow the mangroves and sea the rise. National Parks Journal 46, 6.
McLeod, E., Salm, R., 2006. Managing Mangroves for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. pp. 90-108.
Field, C., 1995. Impacts of expected climate change on mangroves. Hydrobiologia. 295, 75–81.
Thomas, R., Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Kanagaratnam, P., Acuna, C., Akins, T., Brecher, H., Frederick, E., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Manizade, S., Ramamoorthy, H., Rivera, A., Russell, R., Sonntag, J., Swift, R., Yungel, J., Zwally, J., 2004. Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica. Science. 306, 255–258.
Church, J., Hunter, J., McInnes, K., White, N., 2004. Sea-level rise and the frequency of extreme events around the Australian coastline. In: Coast to Coast ’04th Conference Proceedings Australia’s National Coastal Conference, Hobart, 19–23 April 2004, pp. 1–8.
Gilman, E., Van Lavieren, H., Ellison, J., Jungblut, V., Adler, E., Wilson, L., Areki, F., Brighouse, G., Bungitak, J., Dus, E., Henry, M., Kilman, M., Matthews, E., Sauni I., Teariki-Ruatu, N., Tukia, S., & Yuknavage, K.2006. Living with Pacific Island mangrove responses to a changing climate and rising sea level. United Nations Environment Programme. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies.pp.192-205.
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The physical Science Basis. Summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, p. 18.
Warrick R.A., 2007 .Proceedings of the ANZSEE conference on re-inventing sustainability: a climate for change, held 3e6 July 2007, Noosaville, Queensland, Australia. SimCLIM: recent developments of an integrated model for multi-scale, risk-based assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation. pp. 60-69.
Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J.M. & Co-authors, 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, pp, 120.
Warrick, R.A., Oerlemans, J., Woodworth, P.L., Meier, M.F., le Provost, C. 1996. Changes in sea level. In: Houghton, J.T., MeiraFilho, L.G., Callander, B.A. (Eds), Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp. 359-405.
Berdin, R., Siringan, F., Maeda, Y., 2003. Holocene relative sea-level changes and mangrove response in Southwest Bohol, Philippines. Journal of Coastal Research. 19, 304–313.
Lucas, R.M., Ellison, J.C., Mitchell, A., Donnelly, B., Finlayson, M.,& Milne, A.K. (2002). Use of stereo aerial photography for quantifying changes in the extent and height of mangroves in tropical Australia. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 10, 161–175.
Ellison, J., 2000. How South Pacific mangrovesmay respond to predicted climate change and sea level rise. In: Gillespie, A.,Burns,W. (Eds.),Climate Change in the South Pacific: Impacts and Responses in Australia, New Zealand, and Small Islands States. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands, (Chapter 15), pp. 289–301.
Nunn, P.D. 2000. Significance of emerged Holocene corals around Ovalau and Moturiki islands, Fiji, southwest Pacific. Marine Geology, 163, 345–351..
Woodroffe, C.D., 1995. Response of tide-dominated mangrove shorelines in northern Australia to anticipated sea-level rise. Earth Surface and Processing Land. 20, 65–85.
Ellison, J. 2004. Vulnerability of Fiji’s mangroves and associated coral reefs to climate change. Prepared for the World Wildlife Fund. Launceston, Australia: University of Tasmania. pp.35-78.
Lewis III, R.R., 2005. Ecological engineering for successful management and restoration of mangrove forests. Ecological Engineering. 24, 403–418.
Ross, M.S., Meeder, J.F., Sah, J.P., Ruiz P.L., & Telesnicki, G.J., 2000: The southeast saline Everglades revisited: 50 years of coastal vegetation change. J. Vegetation Science, 11, 101-112.
Wilton, K. 2002. Coastal Wetland habitat dynamics in selected New South Wales Estuaries. Volume 1. Ph.D. Thesis, Australian Catholic University, Fitzroy, Australia. pp. 125-137.
Saenger, P., 2002. Mangrove Ecology, Silviculture and Conservation. Kluwer, pp. 360.
Mcleod, E., Poulter, B., Hinkel, J., Reyes, E., Salm, R. 2010. Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. Ocean and Coastal Management, 53 ,507-517.
Ellison, J., & Stoddart, D. 1991. Mangrove ecosystem collapse during predicted sea-level rise: Holocene analogues and implications. Journal of Coastal Research, 7(1), 151–165.
Semeniuk, V. 1994. Predicting the effect of sea-level rise on mangroves in Northwestern Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 10(4), 1050–1076.
Cahoon, D.R., Hensel, P.F., Spencer, T., Reed, D.J., McKee K.L. and Saintilan, N. 2006. Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. Wetlands as a Natural Resource, Vol. 1: Wetlands and Natural Resource Management, J.Verhoeven, D.Whigham, R. Bobbink and Beltman, Eds., Springer Ecological Studies series, Chapter 12, 271-292.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., Sauni Jr., I., Tuaumu, S., 2007a. Trends in surface elevations of American Samoa mangroves. Wetland and Ecological Management. 15, 391–404.
Krauss, K.W., Cahoon, D.R., Allen, J.A., Ewel, K.C., Lynch, J.C., Cormier, N. 2010. Surface Elevation Change and Susceptibility of Different Mangrove Zones to Sea-Level Rise on Pacific High Islands of Micronesia. Ecosystems, 13, 129–143.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., Coleman, R., 2007b. Assessment of mangrove responseto projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental Monitoring Assessment. 124, 112–134.
Pilkey, O.H., Cooper, J.A., 2004. Society and sea level rise. Science. 303, 1781–1782.
Kennish, M.J. 2002. Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. Environmental Conservation 29 (1), 78–107.
Duke, N.C., Ball, M.C., Ellison, J.C., 1998. Factors influencing biodiversity and distributional gradients in mangroves. Global Ecological Biogeography, 7, 27–47.
Gilman, E., Ellison, J., & Coleman, R. 2007. Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 124(1-3), 105–30.
Comeaux, R. S., Allison, M. a., & Bianchi, T. S. 2012. Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: Implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 96, 81–95.
Ellison, J. 2004. Vulnerability of Fiji’s mangroves and associated coral reefs to climate change. Prepared for theWorld Wildlife Fund. Launceston, Australia: University of Tasmania.
McKee, K.L., Cahoon, D.R., Feller, I.C., 2007. Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 545-556.
Semeniuk, V. 1994. Predicting the effect of sea-level rise on mangroves in Northwestern Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 10(4), 1050–1076.
Kumara, M. P., Jayatissa, L. P., Krauss, K. W., Phillips, D. H., & Huxham, M. 2010. High mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise. Oecologia, 164(2), 545–53.
Krauss, K.W., Allen, J.A., Cahoon, D.R., 2003. Differential rates of vertical accretion and elevation change among aerial root types in Micronesian mangrove forests. Estuary and Coastal Shelf Science, 56, 251–259
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