ارائه ی مدلی ترکیبی جهت ارزیابی ریسک های یک پروژه ی B.O.T
الموضوعات :Leila Fazli 1 , Alireza Eydi 2
1 - M.Sc. Graduate in Industrial Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor in Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
الکلمات المفتاحية: structural equation modeling, Quality Management, ارزیابی ریسک, Performance Indicators, پروژه ی B.O.T, شناسایی و مدیریت ریسک,
ملخص المقالة :
در سراسر جهان B.O.T به عنوان روشی برای جذب بخش خصوصی در پروژه هایی که دچار کمبود منابع، عدم دسترسی به فناوری لازم و ... هستند، گسترش روزافزونی داشته است. شکست در چنین پروژه هایی هزینه های سنگین اقتصادی و اجتماعی را به تمامی طرف های قرارداد تحمیل خواهدکرد. بنابراین همچنان که T .B.O کنترل دولت را بر تأسیسات حفظ خواهد نمود، اما در عین حال عدم وجود شناخت کافی از محیط اجرای پروژه، می تواند ریسک بالایی برای سازمان پروژه به همراه داشته باشد. بر این اساس شناسایی و مدیریت ریسک، لازمه ی مؤفقیت پروژه های B.O.Tمی باشد. بنابراین در این مطالعه، یک مدل ارزیابی بر پایه ی تکنیک های: پروفایل کارایی ورودی بهبود یافته - تاکسونومی عددی، آنالیز اجزای اصلی بهبود یافته، بازی دو نفره با مجموع صفر - UTASTAR و کپلند به منظور ارزیابی ریسک های موجود در یک پروژه ی B.O.T پیشنهاد می گردد. همچنین به نظور بررسی عملکرد مدل پیشنهادی، یک مثال عددی به همراه تحلیل نتایج و اعتبارسنجی آن ارائه می گردد.
1- Abdoli, GH. (2008). Game theory and its applications. Tehran: Jahat University Tehran Publications.
2- Adila, A. (2001). Predictors of university academic performance in Colombia instituto colombiano de neuropsicologia. Bogota, Colombia, International Journal of Educational Research, 35, 411 - 417.
3- Afshar, A., Khazayeni, G. (2005). Identification of risk factors in B.O.T projects. The 2nd National Congress on Civil Engineering, Tehran, Iran.
4- Amini, N., Yadollahi, H., & Inanloo, S. (2007). Health ranking of the provinces of country. Social Welfare Quarterly, 20, 27 - 48.
5- Arab Mazar, F. (2002). DEA in contrast to other techniques for measuring performance. The 3th International Conference of Data Envelopment Analysis, Firuzkuh, Iran
6- Askari, M., & Shokrizade, H.R. (2014 ).An integrated method for ranking of risk in BOT projects. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,109, 1390 -1394
7- Beuthe, M., & Scannella, G. (2001). Comparative analysis of UTA multicriteria methods. European Journal of Operational Research, 130(2), 246 - 262.
8- Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., & Rohdes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429 - 444.
9- Chen, Y.W., & Larbani, M. (2006). Two - person zero - sum game approach for fuzzy multiple attribute decision making problems. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 157(1), 34 - 51.
10- David, K. (1996). Risk modeling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 11(2), 359 - 366.
11- Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S.M., & Mojtahedi, S.M.H. (2008). A fuzzy BOT project risk evaluation model in iranian power plant industry. The 5th of IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore.
12- Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S.M., & Seyrafianpour, H. (2010). Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: a fuzzy multi attribute decision making model. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(1), 575 - 586.
13- Emel, A.B., Oral, M., Reisman, A., & Yolalan, R. (2003). A credit Rating approach for the commercial banking sector. Journal of Socio – Economic Planning Sciences, 37, 103 - 123.
14- Feng, C.M., & Kang, C.C. (1999). Risk identification and measurement of BOT projects. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 3(4), 337 - 349.
15- Feng, C.M., & Kang, C.C. (2000). The risk assessment of the negotiation group for BOT projects. Transportation Planning Journal Quarterly, 29(4), 709 - 738.
16- Feng, C.M., Kang, C.C., & Tzeng, G.H. (2002). Applications of group negotiation to risk assessment of BOT projects. OMEGA.
17- Figueira, J., Greco, S., & Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State Of The Art Surveys (Ch. 8), USA: Springer science.
18- Jacquet - Lagrèze, E., & Siskos, Y. (1982). Assessing a set of additive utility functions for multicriteria decision making: The UTA method, European Journal of Operational Research, 10 (2), 151- 164.
19- Li, J., & Zou, P.X.W. (2008). Risk identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and life - cycle methodology. Journal Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, 8(1), 32 – 46.
20- Kang, C.C., Feng, C.M., & Khan, H. A. (2005). Risk assessment for build - operate - transfer projects: a dynamic multi - objective programming approach. Computers & Operations Research, 32, 1633 - 1654.
21- Kazemi, M., & Nikkhah Farkhani, Z. (2005). Application of data envelopment analysis to measure and analyze the relative efficiency of the towns of province Khorasan Razavi in the cultivation of wheat. Development Journal of Economics and Agricultural, 2(3), 87 - 94.
22- Khanzadi, M. (2008). Risk assessment model for project financing approach B.O.T. The 2th International Project Management Conference, Aryana Industrial and Research Group, Tehran.
23- Konstantinos, k. (2004). Risk Management: A powerful tool for improving efficiency of project. Manufacturing Information Systems.
24- Marec, A., Thomasa, J.H., & Elguerjouma, R. (2008). Damage characterization of polymer-based composite materials: Multivariable analysis and wavelet transform for clustering acoustic emission data. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 22, 1441 - 1464.
25- Mirfakhraddiny, H., Farid, D., Tahari Mehrjardi, M.H., & Zareei Mahmod abadi, M. (2012). Identification and ranking of factors affecting quality improvement of health and treatment services using multiple attribute decision making (MADM): a case study. Journal of Health Administration, 13(43), 51- 63.
26- Mohaddes, F. (2001). Analysis of the main components and factors (Case study: Extraction of index assets price and evaluating its effect on inflation. Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran). Set of Economic Research, The Office of Investigations and Economic policies.
27- Momeni, M. (2007). New topics in operations research. Tehran: Tehran University Publications.
28- Monfaredian Sarvestani, M. (2008). Ranking diderse urban areas of city Shiraz in terms of the degree of development (MSc Thesis). University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
29- Motameni, A.R. (2003). Productivity dynamism model design with data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach (Doctoral dissertation), University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
30- PMBOK. (2004). A guide to the project management Body of Knoledge (3th ed.). Management Institute, Standards Committee.
31- Premachandra, I.M. (2001). A note on DEA VS. Principal Component Analysis: an Improvement to Joe Zhu’s Approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 132, 553 - 560.
32- Roghanian, E., & Bazleh, A. (2011). An approach in BOT project selection based on fuzzy QFD and TOPSIS with consideration of risk. IN Proceedings of the 3rd Conference on Thermal Power Plants, Tehran, Iran.
33- Safari, S., Ebrahimi Shaghaghi, M., & Sheikh, M.J. (2001). Credit risk management of corporate clients in commercial Bank with Data Envelopment Analysis approach (credit ranking). Managment Research in Iran (Modares Human Sciences), 4(14), 164 - 137.
34- Saeed Jabal Ameli, M., Haddad, H., & Haji Agha Bozorgi, A. (2000). Financial risk assessment model for B.O.T Projects based on risk cycle. Executive Management Conference, Tehran, Iran.
35- Siskos, Y., & Yannacopoulos, D. (1985). UTASTAR: an ordinal regression method for building additive value functions, Investigaça ̃o Operacional, 5(1), 39 - 53.
36- Thomas, A.V., Kalidindi, S.N., & Ganesh, L.S. (2006). Modelling and assessment of critical risks in BOT road projects. Construction Management and Economics, 24(4), 407- 424
37- Tofillis, C. (1997). Input efficiency profiling: an application to airlines. Computers & Operations Research, 24(3), 253 - 258.
38- UN/ECE. (2000). Guidelines for Private Public Partnership for infrastructuredevelopment. United nations Economic commission for Europe, UN/ECE forum on Public - Private Partnerships for infrastructure, UN/ECE BOT expert Advisory group, Hamilton, G.
39- Zayed, T., & Chang, L. (2002). Prototype model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk assessment. Journal of Management in Engineering, 18(1), 7 - 16.
_||_1- Abdoli, GH. (2008). Game theory and its applications. Tehran: Jahat University Tehran Publications.
2- Adila, A. (2001). Predictors of university academic performance in Colombia instituto colombiano de neuropsicologia. Bogota, Colombia, International Journal of Educational Research, 35, 411 - 417.
3- Afshar, A., Khazayeni, G. (2005). Identification of risk factors in B.O.T projects. The 2nd National Congress on Civil Engineering, Tehran, Iran.
4- Amini, N., Yadollahi, H., & Inanloo, S. (2007). Health ranking of the provinces of country. Social Welfare Quarterly, 20, 27 - 48.
5- Arab Mazar, F. (2002). DEA in contrast to other techniques for measuring performance. The 3th International Conference of Data Envelopment Analysis, Firuzkuh, Iran
6- Askari, M., & Shokrizade, H.R. (2014 ).An integrated method for ranking of risk in BOT projects. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,109, 1390 -1394
7- Beuthe, M., & Scannella, G. (2001). Comparative analysis of UTA multicriteria methods. European Journal of Operational Research, 130(2), 246 - 262.
8- Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., & Rohdes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429 - 444.
9- Chen, Y.W., & Larbani, M. (2006). Two - person zero - sum game approach for fuzzy multiple attribute decision making problems. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 157(1), 34 - 51.
10- David, K. (1996). Risk modeling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 11(2), 359 - 366.
11- Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S.M., & Mojtahedi, S.M.H. (2008). A fuzzy BOT project risk evaluation model in iranian power plant industry. The 5th of IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore.
12- Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S.M., & Seyrafianpour, H. (2010). Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: a fuzzy multi attribute decision making model. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(1), 575 - 586.
13- Emel, A.B., Oral, M., Reisman, A., & Yolalan, R. (2003). A credit Rating approach for the commercial banking sector. Journal of Socio – Economic Planning Sciences, 37, 103 - 123.
14- Feng, C.M., & Kang, C.C. (1999). Risk identification and measurement of BOT projects. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 3(4), 337 - 349.
15- Feng, C.M., & Kang, C.C. (2000). The risk assessment of the negotiation group for BOT projects. Transportation Planning Journal Quarterly, 29(4), 709 - 738.
16- Feng, C.M., Kang, C.C., & Tzeng, G.H. (2002). Applications of group negotiation to risk assessment of BOT projects. OMEGA.
17- Figueira, J., Greco, S., & Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State Of The Art Surveys (Ch. 8), USA: Springer science.
18- Jacquet - Lagrèze, E., & Siskos, Y. (1982). Assessing a set of additive utility functions for multicriteria decision making: The UTA method, European Journal of Operational Research, 10 (2), 151- 164.
19- Li, J., & Zou, P.X.W. (2008). Risk identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and life - cycle methodology. Journal Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, 8(1), 32 – 46.
20- Kang, C.C., Feng, C.M., & Khan, H. A. (2005). Risk assessment for build - operate - transfer projects: a dynamic multi - objective programming approach. Computers & Operations Research, 32, 1633 - 1654.
21- Kazemi, M., & Nikkhah Farkhani, Z. (2005). Application of data envelopment analysis to measure and analyze the relative efficiency of the towns of province Khorasan Razavi in the cultivation of wheat. Development Journal of Economics and Agricultural, 2(3), 87 - 94.
22- Khanzadi, M. (2008). Risk assessment model for project financing approach B.O.T. The 2th International Project Management Conference, Aryana Industrial and Research Group, Tehran.
23- Konstantinos, k. (2004). Risk Management: A powerful tool for improving efficiency of project. Manufacturing Information Systems.
24- Marec, A., Thomasa, J.H., & Elguerjouma, R. (2008). Damage characterization of polymer-based composite materials: Multivariable analysis and wavelet transform for clustering acoustic emission data. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 22, 1441 - 1464.
25- Mirfakhraddiny, H., Farid, D., Tahari Mehrjardi, M.H., & Zareei Mahmod abadi, M. (2012). Identification and ranking of factors affecting quality improvement of health and treatment services using multiple attribute decision making (MADM): a case study. Journal of Health Administration, 13(43), 51- 63.
26- Mohaddes, F. (2001). Analysis of the main components and factors (Case study: Extraction of index assets price and evaluating its effect on inflation. Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran). Set of Economic Research, The Office of Investigations and Economic policies.
27- Momeni, M. (2007). New topics in operations research. Tehran: Tehran University Publications.
28- Monfaredian Sarvestani, M. (2008). Ranking diderse urban areas of city Shiraz in terms of the degree of development (MSc Thesis). University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
29- Motameni, A.R. (2003). Productivity dynamism model design with data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach (Doctoral dissertation), University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
30- PMBOK. (2004). A guide to the project management Body of Knoledge (3th ed.). Management Institute, Standards Committee.
31- Premachandra, I.M. (2001). A note on DEA VS. Principal Component Analysis: an Improvement to Joe Zhu’s Approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 132, 553 - 560.
32- Roghanian, E., & Bazleh, A. (2011). An approach in BOT project selection based on fuzzy QFD and TOPSIS with consideration of risk. IN Proceedings of the 3rd Conference on Thermal Power Plants, Tehran, Iran.
33- Safari, S., Ebrahimi Shaghaghi, M., & Sheikh, M.J. (2001). Credit risk management of corporate clients in commercial Bank with Data Envelopment Analysis approach (credit ranking). Managment Research in Iran (Modares Human Sciences), 4(14), 164 - 137.
34- Saeed Jabal Ameli, M., Haddad, H., & Haji Agha Bozorgi, A. (2000). Financial risk assessment model for B.O.T Projects based on risk cycle. Executive Management Conference, Tehran, Iran.
35- Siskos, Y., & Yannacopoulos, D. (1985). UTASTAR: an ordinal regression method for building additive value functions, Investigaça ̃o Operacional, 5(1), 39 - 53.
36- Thomas, A.V., Kalidindi, S.N., & Ganesh, L.S. (2006). Modelling and assessment of critical risks in BOT road projects. Construction Management and Economics, 24(4), 407- 424
37- Tofillis, C. (1997). Input efficiency profiling: an application to airlines. Computers & Operations Research, 24(3), 253 - 258.
38- UN/ECE. (2000). Guidelines for Private Public Partnership for infrastructuredevelopment. United nations Economic commission for Europe, UN/ECE forum on Public - Private Partnerships for infrastructure, UN/ECE BOT expert Advisory group, Hamilton, G.
39- Zayed, T., & Chang, L. (2002). Prototype model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk assessment. Journal of Management in Engineering, 18(1), 7 - 16.
