دستیابی به اجماع برای مسائل روش شناختی در تکنیک دلفی
Subject Areas : Environmental policy and managementزهرا گودرزی 1 , عنایت عباسی 2 , همایون فرهادیان 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 - دکتری، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
Keywords: تکنیک دلفی, سطح اجماع, مجله آموزش کشاورزی, نقد روش شناختی,
Abstract :
دلفی یک روش قدرتمند است که به دنبال پاسخ به سوالات مناسب است. هدف از این مقاله ارائه یک بازبینی کلی از روش دلفی به عنوان یک روش تحقیق است. این مقاله با بررسی 41 مورد مطالعات مجله آموزش کشاورزی در سالهای 1981 تا 2013 و 2 مطالعه مجله علم و صنعت کشاورزی، شایستگی علمی روش دلفی را مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. نتایج نشان داد که اجماع کلی در مورد استفاده از شاخص ها در دورهای (راندهای) مختلف روش دلفی وجود ندارد، اما توجه به فراوانی استفاده از این شاخص ها در مطالعات مختلف، تعداد کارشناسان پانل بین 10 تا 20 نفر، استفاده از روش نمونه گیری هدفمند برای انتخاب اعضای پانل، استفاده از دلفی با سه دور(راند)، طراحی یک سوال در دور (راند) اول، استفاده از شاخص های انحراف معیار و میانگین برای گذر از دور (راند) دوم به دور سوم و سطح اجماع 70 درصد در حال حاضر برای دستیابی به اجماع متخصص در دور سوم پیشنهاد شد.
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