Tracking of Driving Forces affecting the future of Customs Organization up to the horizon 1410

Subject Areas : business management

Bagher Babanejad ¹ (Department of Human Resources Management, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran)
Mohsen Taheri Demneh ² (Department of Industrial engineering and Future studies, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.)
Samereh Shojaei ³ (Department of public Management, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran.)
mohammad bagher gorji ⁴ (Department of public Management, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran.)

Received: 2020-09-08 Accepted : 2020-10-05 Published : 2020-12-21

Keywords: Foresight, Customs, Cross Impact, Mega trend, Driver Forces,

Abstract :

Expansion of factors affecting an organization levels is one of the major challenges facing organizations in designing a favorable outlook, So Understanding the organization's environment in order to Benefit of opportunities and avoid threats requires a new approach, beyond the usual methods of planning and forecasting.Strategic foresight is one of the tools for future research. The present exploratory research with a combination of qualitative and quantitative models and with this approach has tracked the driving forces affecting the future of customs. For this purpose, Mega-trends were studied in six areas based on PESTEL and then In an interview with Customs experts, a list of effective factors was identified, which led to the design of a questionnaire with 30 factors. This questionnaire was weighted and completed through a panel of experts. Data analysis by the method of cross impact analysis in Micmac software shows that driving forces such as stakeholders and public expectations, a culture of honesty and the fight against corruption, transparency of laws and facilitation of procedures and virtual customs will have the greatest impact on the future of the Customs, Therefore Macro decision-making, strategic planning and future customs conditions should be outlined according to these driving forces.