Feasibility of Currency hedging for exporter and importer companies by Using the Iran Mercantile Exchange Coin futures contract

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

ali rostami ¹ , Gholamreza Zomordian ² , Meysam Alimohammadi ³

1 - Member of faculty of Payame Noor University
2 - Member of faculty member of Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch
3 - Master of Science in Finance, lecturer at Kharazmi University

Received: 2016-10-31 Accepted : 2017-01-21 Published : 2017-06-22

Keywords: cross hedging risk, Optimum Hedge Ratio, BEEK-GARCH model, exchange risk, futures contracts coin,

Abstract :

One of the most important applications of futures, hedging is that this application is also evident in the futures coins and various stakeholders can use it. In this paper, using time series dollar in free market and price of futures contracts coin during the period 1390 to 1393 to assess the risk of cross hedging exchange rate using futures contracts coin. First, the correlation between the exchange rate and price time series econometric model for future Coin vector regression (VAR) found. After the confirmation of residual autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity conditional on the VAR, the model BEEK (which is a multivariate GARCH model), conditional variance Currency and coins was estimated future prices and then by minimum variance hedge ratio was calculated for different maturities and the profit or loss resulting from currency risk hedging gain or loss resulting from exchange rate fluctuations were real. The results show that there is a high correlation with the price of the coin exchange rate (US Dollar), possibility of covering cross-currency risk using futures contracts provide for gold coins. Also, due to long-term memory between exchange rate fluctuations and price estimation of future coins hedge ratio through BEEK-GARCH model, and using this model include more than 70 percent to compensate losses from currency risk.