Examining the Prediction Scenarios of Land Subsidence Caused by Excessive Extraction of Underground Water Resources of Tehran-Shahriyar Plain until the Horizon of 2031
Subject Areas : Article frome a thesisSeyed Hamidreza Hosseini 1 , Seyed Habib Musavi-jahromi 2 , Hossein Mohammad Vali Samani 3
1 - Ph.D. Student in Civil Engineering - Water Resources Management Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shahr-e- Qods Branch, Tehran , Iran
2 - Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 - Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Tehran, Iran`
Keywords: Subsidence, Scenario, Allocation, Underground water level, Land type,
Abstract :
Introduction: In recent years, the phenomenon of land subsidence, as one of the harmful effects of lowering the level of underground water, has always been the subject of discussion and concern of human societies. Therefore, this issue, along with the intensification of other challenges such as climate change, needs to find a solution. Scientific studies and subsequently designing and compiling various future researches to face possible future conditions with the least cost and economic and social damage. Shahryar Plain is one of the forbidden and critical plains of the country, which is also active in terms of industry and agriculture. This plain has been affected by the phenomenon of land subsidence for the past several years. The presence of vital arteries, economic, pilgrimage and military areas has turned it into a strategic area, which doubles the cost of the harmful consequences of subsidence. Therefore, it is very important to predict the possibilities of structural land by applying different conditions and probability of occurrence in different conditions to prevent and prepare to reduce its negative consequences in the way of implementing future water resource management plans.
Methods: Using the geological, geotechnical and hydrological data of the plain in COMSOL software, the subsidence in 22 selected points of the study area was calculated during the years 2002-2018 and after verification and obtaining a high agreement with the real data and radar interferometric images, the amount of subsidence has been estimated till 2031.
Findings: In this research, it has been tried to rely on the findings obtained from the prediction of the subsidence of the Tehran-Shahriar plain until the horizon of 2031 and based on the multiple scenarios in order to make policies. and provide guidance for future actions in the field of water resource and consumption management.
Conclusion: The general result showed that the rate of subsidence in the early years appeared at a higher rate in the upper layers of the aquifer, and over time, after filling the voids between the soil particles towards the upper layers of the aquifer surface, and finally leads to the surface of the earth, the changes in the underground water level and the type of land have been among the factors affecting the subsidence pattern and rate.
Haqshanas, Mohammad، 2016، "Evaluation of ground subsidence caused by water level changes in Baghistan region (Shahriyar plain) using electrical resistance data". Master's thesis in Engineering Geology, Tarbiat Modares University.
2. Faryabi, Muhammad. Kalantri, Nasraleh. Chit-Sazan, Manouchehr and Rahimi, Muhammad Hossein,2008 . “We are talking about the old days of Rafsanjan’s homeland in the countryside of the city of Zarzamini.” Hamish Domain of the Network Directorate of Abiyari and Zahkashi, Shahid Chamran Ahvaz University, Faculty of Water Science Engineering, page 8.
3. Organization of Geology and Mineral Exploration of the country ، 2005، “The first generation of people in Dasht Tehran - Shahryar (First report),” page 54.
4. Zeng, C.-F., Wang, S., Xue, X.-L., Zheng, G. & Mei, G.-X. 2021. Evolution of deep ground settlement subject to groundwater drawdown during dewatering in a multi-layered aquifer-aquitard system: Insights from numerical modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 12707.
5. Chao-Feng Zeng, Shuo Wang, Xiu-Li Xue, Gang Zheng, Guo-Xiong Mei., 2021. Evolution of deep ground settlement subject to groundwater drawdown during dewatering in a multi-layered aquifer-aquitard system: Insights from numerical odeling,Journal of Hydrology ,Volume 603, Part C,
6. Lashkaripour, G., Ghafouri, M., Rostami Barani, H. 2020. Investigation of the causes of fissure formation and subsidence in the west of Kashmar plain. Geological Studies, 1(1),.111-95.
7. Mahmoudpour, M., Khamehchiyan, M., Nikoudel, M.R., Ghassemi, M.R.,2013, Characterization of regional land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawals in Tehran, Iran, JGeope 3(2): 49-62.
8. Nguyen, Q., 2016. The main causes of land subsidence in Ho Ghi Minh City. Procedia Engineering, 142:334-341.
9. H.Guo, 2015 , Groundwater- abstraction induced land subsidence and groundwater regulation in the North China Plain, piahs- 372
10. Tran, D.-H., Wang, S.-J. & Nguyen, Q. C. 2022. Uncertainty of heterogeneous hydrogeological models in groundwater flow and land subsidence simulations–A case study in Huwei Town, Taiwan. Engineering Geology, 298, 106543.
11. Iranian, Riadullah،2014،Continuity analysis of south Alborz aquifer (Abhar to Varamin plains), conference on management of water resources and uses (based on sustainable development of central Alborz region, challenges, strategies and new approaches), University of Tehran, page 12. .
12. Manafi Azar, Ali ، 2018،"Prediction of the amount of subsidence in the southwestern plain of Tehran aquifer using intelligent models" Master's thesis in Engineering Geology, Tarbiat Modares University.
13. Mohammad Khan, S., Ganjian, H., Grossi , L., Zanganeh Tabar, Z. 2020. Evaluation of the effect of groundwater depletion on subsidence using radar images, study area, Qorveh plain, Geographical Data Quarterly 112(28),. 229-220.
14. Organization of Geology and Mineral Exploration of the country ، 2005، “The first generation of people in Dasht Tehran - Shahryar (First report),” page 54.
15. Tehran Regional Water Company،2021، "South Tehran surface water management plan (quantitative and qualitative studies)". 1st consultant engineering, volumes 1 and 2.
16. Rajabi Khamseh, k, Nikbakht Shahbazi, A, Fatahhayan, H, Zahrabi, N., 2021,modeling of Izeh plain subsidence using MODFLOW mathematical code, Journal of Water Resources Research iran, 16(4): 112-126.
17. Tehran Regional Water Company. 2020. inventory of the third period of piezometers and wells in operation of Tehran-Shahriar aquifer., Tehran.[In Persian]
18. Angorani S, Shaiati Panahi M, Memaian H, Bolourchi MJ., 2015. Dynamic modeling of Land Subsidence in Tehran Plain. Geosciences 25(97):211-220
19. Tehran Regional Water Company. 2022. Artificial feeding studies through wide open wells in Tehran-Shahriar plain , Tehran.
20. Nadiri, A, Taheri, Z , Barzegari, G, Dedeban, K., 2018, Providing a framework for estimating aquifer subsidence potential using genetic algorithm, Journal of Water Resources Research, 4(2):185-174.
21. Nadiri, A., Monafi Azar, A., Khamehchian, M. 2018. Comparison of aquifer subsidence vulnerability in southwestern Tehran plain with simple weighting model and genetic algorithm, Journal of Kharazmi Earth Sciences, 4(2),. 212-199.
22. Papi, R. & Solemani, M. 2020. Analysing Time Series of Land Subsidence in the West of Tehran Province (Shahriar Plain) and its Relation to Groundwater Discharge by InSAR Technique. Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 10, 109-128.
23. Mohammad Khan, S., Ganjian, H., Grossi , L., Zanganeh Tabar, Z. 2020. Evaluation of the effect of groundwater depletion on subsidence using radar images, study area, Qorveh plain, Geographical Data Quarterly 112(28),. 229-220
