Modeling the discovery of changes and prediction of land use using optical sensors with Land Change modeler method (Study area: west of Tehran)

Subject Areas :

seyedaghil ebrahimi ¹ , seyed ali almodaresi ² , Farhad Hamzeh ³

1 - PhD Candidate in Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - 2. Professor, Geomorphology, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor at Central Tehran Islamic Azad University

Received: 2025-02-27 Accepted : 2025-12-21 Published : 2025-12-18

Keywords: West Tehran region, land use changes, LCM, NDVI,

Abstract :

In recent decades, due to rapid urbanization, there has been special attention to land use changes, as urban areas are influenced by human activities, and the lives of the world's population are closely linked to human activities at the urban levels. This has led to an emphasis on how land use affects social, environmental, and economic aspects. In this context, large cities in Iran, like Tehran, are not an exception. This research evaluated the western region of Tehran regarding changes in vegetation cover as well as land use. The changes, or transformations, in land use classes or urban, agricultural, water, barren lands, and vegetation cover such as gardens were examined. The most significant changes among these have been the transformation of green spaces and agricultural areas into barren lands and subsequently into urban areas. However, in places like the Chitgar Forest Park and the National Botanical Garden, we have observed an increase in vegetation cover density.

In this research, Landsat satellite images from 2013 and 2020 were used. We employed the method of maximum likelihood  to classify land use into five categories: water, barren land, agriculture, vegetation, and urban areas. In the end, a map of changes for the year 2027 was prepared, and the conversion rates of different land uses were presented in a table.

The results indicated that the use of urban areas in 2020 has increased compared to 2013, and it's forecasted that this trend will continue to rise in 2027. Agricultural land use decreased in 2020 compared to 2013, and it's expected to decline further in 2027. The use of vegetation cover also saw a reduction in 2020 relative to 2013, and this decrease is projected to carry on into 2027. 

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