CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL WATER CONSUMPTION REGARDING TO CLIMATE CHANGES

Subject Areas : crop production

حسین ابراهیمی ¹

1 - استادیار گروه عمران دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب

Received: 2011-01-08 Accepted : 2011-07-30 Published : 2010-10-09

Keywords: Climate change, Consumed water, Evapotranspiration, , Water balance.,

Abstract :

Climate change and increase in the temperature are important ecological issue in human life which can affect regional agricultures. Evaporation, potential transpiration, and water requirements of the culture pattern in every region are affected by changes in the climates. The studied area is located between 36°00'N & 37°05'N, and 58°20'E & 60°08'E, with an average temperature of 12.5°C and annual precipitation of 278.6 mm. Results assert that water requirement has been ascending within the 50 recent years, especially during the second 25 years (1975-2000). Evapotranspiration for the 2000-2050 periods was calculated by means of The Global Climate Change Model. The ratio of the recent-50-year January to September monthly evapotranspiration to the coming same period is bigger than one; the 1.05-1.22 ratio indicates a 22 percent growth of water requirement in the period ending in 2050. The total net water requirements for the current culture pattern were estimated at 410 million m3 per year; while the figure for the next 50-year period -with a 19 percent of increment- will be 490 million m3. Water requirement for a majority of the culture pattern will be 22 percent up. The least increase was 14 percent, which was calculated for alfalfa. Exceeding the yearly available water supplies, in the changing conditions of climate, agricultural water consumption in the plain touches 1388.4 million m3. Given the climate change, the shortage will reach 198 percent in June and July. The present critical water shortage coefficient of 0.98 (yearly) and 2.4 (monthly) will go up to 1.15 and 2.4. These figures indicate extremely crucial conditions in the region. Findings assert that even optimistically assuming that the water supplies will be enduring, agricultural water consumption (i.e. the major type of consumption) will dramatically increase, due to the warming weather, climate change originated in industrialization, and greenhouse gasses; so managerial solutions are needed to tackle the problem.

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