Studying the concepts and basics of back-casting and comparing it with forecasting and visioning

Subject Areas : Futurology

معصومه کاظمی ¹ , حسن gH ² , نفیسه کاظمی ³ , اعظم BA ⁴

1 - ph.d
2 - pH.D
3 - SAVEH
4 - استادیارگروه مدیریت دولتی، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، مشهد

Received: 2017-05-07 Accepted : 2018-09-10 Published : 2018-11-22

Keywords: Visioning, Backcasting, Forecasting,

Abstract :

One of the most important goals of future study is to develop knowledge and to conceive a complicated set of possible futures and, as a result, paving the ground to create and to expand the best guidelines to face with confronting challenges. As a result, active and provocative decision making is ideal under such circumstances. Due to its normative nature and its emphasis on desired futures and considering uncertain conditions, back-casting is one of the best approaches to confront such challenges. Present study is conducted to investigate this approach on growing future study field. In this research, back-casting emergence trend, types of back-casting, steps of back-casting and its functionality are explained and this approach is contemplated. Also, forecasting and visioning methods are briefly reviewed and, ultimately, back-casting is compared with forecasting format as a contrary approach by considering a philosophical view against lack of justification, uncertainty against determinism and teleology against causality. It is also compared with visioning to open a window to conceive differences between back-casting and other techniques as guidance in using such techniques in practice