Digital banking service scenarios in horizon 1408
Subject Areas : Futurology
1 - public administration- faculty of accounting and management -Islamic azad university of mashad- iran
Keywords: Scenario, thematic analysis, Uncertainty, Digital Banking,
Abstract :
In the present study, we have used the Peter Schwartz scenariobulding method to identify digital banking service scenarios. This is done with the help of methods of Thematic Analysis, Analytical matrix of network effects, and uncertainty and narrative. And the scenario method is used as a workflow connection loop for all of these methods. Identification of “driving forces" and "key factors" was performed using qualitative method, thematic network analysis, and with the help of QSR NVIVO 10 software. As a result of the macro and micro environment scans at the three levels of 'community context', 'business environment' and 'organizational environment', a total of 86 variables (driving forces and key factors) have been identified related to the future of digital banking services. Of the 86 variables obtained in the previous step, 50 variables were designated as the input of the effects network and uncertainties. The Impact network and Uncertainty, which is an analytical matrix, enables the positioning of identified elements in terms of the degree of uncertainty and significance (potential impacts) that are identified as critical uncertainties as a result of 'digital service quality' and 'digital lifestyle'. They affect the future space, and based on these two critical uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated: technological governance; technological fascination; technological tragedy and technological backwardness, with emphasis on the structure of each scenario.
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