Research on Iran's Economic Future Scenarios and Its Security Impacts: Critical Uncertainty Approach

Subject Areas : Futurology

Hossein Esmaeili razi ¹ (Ph.D. in Economics, University of Isfahan, Assistant Professor, Non-profit Higher Education Institution of Isfahan (Corresponding Athour) [e-mail])
Alireza nasr esfahani ² (Alireza Nasr Esfahani Ph.D. Student, Future Studies, Research Center for National Science Policy)

Received: 2017-07-29 Accepted : 2018-10-09 Published : 2018-07-23

Keywords: critical uncertainty, Scenario, oil price, economic sanctions,

Abstract :

Studying and planning to achieve a better economic future, plays an important role in the thinking of economic policymakers in every country, including Iran. But the achievement to the desirable and sustainable future requires answering these questions that the Iran's economy has been influenced by what factors and policies? And what factors determine the future trend of Iran's economy? Accordingly, in this research, the study on past trends of the Iran's economy and the identification of factors that affecting the Iran's economy have been considered, in order to write the scenarios for the Iran's future economy and its security impacts. For this purpose, critical uncertainty approach were used.To write the future scenarios, Iran's economic factors with critical uncertainty were identified by using questionnaires that completed by economic experts. Accordingly, two uncertainties of "international economic sanctions" and "oil price" were selected as the critical uncertainties. Based on the results of these scenarios, the Iran's economy will face a decline in economic growth in three scenarios, and in only one scenario, conditions for economic growth and development will be provided without a serious impediment. From a security point of view, in three scenarios and due to changes in the economy, Iran will face security problems with regional, transnational and internal sources.