Foresight of urban project delays by using GBN, CLA. fuzzy TOPSIS and SWOT
Subject Areas : Futurology
Mahdi Kalhor
1
(Urban Planning, Science and Research Branch of Islamic Azad University, Tehran)
Hossein Zabihi
2
(Science and Research Branch of Islamic Azad University of Tehran)
Keywords: SWOT, Project Delay, Scenario-making, Casual Layered Analysis, Fuzzy TOPSIS,
Abstract :
Urban projects are one of the integral parts of urban management tasks. Hence, different parts of an urban project management improvement are one of city executive concerns. Delay and Delay management is on of these parts. Any delay of construction project implementations is a waste of resources and it will impose heavy costs on any project. Occasionally, this is so influential that it even affects project justification. This paper examines the causes of urban project delays by using Casual Layered Analysis (CLA). Then, it will use scenario-building to make most likely scenarios by using Global Business Network (GBN). GBN uses the most likely uncertainties ahead of project delay to make its scenarios. In this regard, two series of interviews, one structured and one structured, are performed. Then, based on them, The related uncertainties are ranked by using fuzzy Technique to Order Preferences by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOSIS). It uses SWOT to propose some strategies. Based on results, four scenarios are formed. Then, the impact of each scenario on the project delay conditions are examined. Some strategies are suggested to move toward the best scenarios. Based on the results, minimizing the government size and creating various infrastructures ,to make competence situation, are the future keys of having less delayed urban project.
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