Analysis of scenarios for dealing with industrial crises caused by the Covid-19 pandemic with the feature of factor-based simulation
Subject Areas : Futurology
MahdiReza Adamian
1
,
Reza Radfar
2
,
Alireza PoorEbrahimi
3
1 - سعادت آباد ، خیابان سرو غربی پلاک 76 طبقه 4 واحد 20
2 - دانشیار و عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات (مسئول مکاتبات)
3 - Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: scenario, industrial crisis, optimistic, probable, pessimistic, factor simulation, Covid-19,
Abstract :
One of the crises that the world is going through today; TheCovid-19 pandemic has killed hundreds of thousands ofPeople around theWorld and caused manyEconomic losses. EpidemicDiseases, due toTheir negativeEffects, haveCalled countries toPrepare programs to eliminate these losses in all sectors. Therefore, theCurrent research was conducted with the aim of identifying different scenarios toDeal with crisesCaused byWidespread trends in the industry. In line with thisGoal, the presentStudy seeks toAnswer theQuestion "What scenariosAre there in order to deal with crises caused by the spread ofWidespread viruses, andHow can they be identified?" haveBeen. In terms of interpretive paradigm, inTerms of exploratory strategy, in terms of descriptive and prescriptive implementation, and based on the type of data collection, the current research was of the qualitative research type. The statistical population consisted of experts with experience and expertise in various industrial crises, especially in the field of widespread diseases. To select the experts, the snowball method was used and 26 experts were selected as sample members. To collect data, interviews and data available in the industry were used, and factor-based modeling was used to analyze information. The results of factor-based simulation were explained by implementing three scenarios (optimistic, probable and pessimistic). Based on the findings, what is common in all three scenarios is the confirmation of global economic recession, and the difference between the scenarios is often related to the duration of the recession and its waves. The most important consequence of the scenarios is the preparation to face different conditions and obtain appropriate solutions.
