Future studies of the banking industry with a scenario approach

Subject Areas : Futurology

farhad shamshiri ¹ , Abdulhamid Ebrahimi ² , Roohalla samieee ³ , Majid Ashrafi ⁴

1 - Department of Entrepreneurship, Ali Abad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ali Abad Katoul, Iran
2 - Department of management, Ali Abad Katoul , Islamic Azad University, Ali Abad Katoul,iran
3 - Department of management, Ali Abad Katoul , Islamic Azad University, Ali Abad Katoul,iran
4 - Department of Accounting, Ali Abad Katoul , Islamic Azad University, Ali Abad Katoul,iran

Received: 2018-09-16 Accepted : 2019-12-14 Published : 2020-02-20

Keywords: Scenario, Banking Industry, futures studies,

Abstract :

Background: The banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, has encouraged experts and economic experts to recognize the future of its volatility and stabilize it in the face of changes and to provide growth and development. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios of the banking industry with a future research approach. Method: The methodology of this research is based on future research scenario writing. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, check-ins, and statistical and information networks. In this study, the statistical population of banking managers and specialists and university professors are familiar with the field of banking, which, based on the type of information required to conduct the research, non-probable judgmental sampling was used. Results: After formulating the initial question and identifying the main topic, forming the panel of experts, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were identified as the primary influencing factors of the banking industry by a 64*64 matrix and then provided with the help of Mic Mac Software , 12 key factors were extracted and categorized into 38 different situations. These situations were then presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38*38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software and four scenarios were extracted. Conclusion: Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak ones were identified and classified into three groups: desirable, static and crisis and presented strategies for developing the banking industry.