‌Analysis of key drivers that influence pattern of land cover in rural areas of East Guilan in order to making a foresight

Subject Areas : Geography and Rural Planning

mohammad ali rahimi pour sheikhani nejad ¹ (Assistant Professor, Faculty Member, University Jihad Organization, Guilan Province)

Received: 2017-07-11 Accepted : 2020-11-10 Published : 2020-10-22

Keywords: MIC-MAC, Scenario, Cross-Impacts matrix, Scenario Wizard, land cover change Factors,

Abstract :

In this study in order to making a foresight and sustainable land planning in rural areas of east guilan as a special ecological zone including 744 villages Essential variables Were collected by using questionnaire & Delphi Method with cooperation of experts. Influence coefficient was calculated. Number of influential variables on changes in land cover were 93 ones. (in the local, regional& national level) key drivers were detected by MIC-MAC. In order to creating scenario 19 influential key drivers on changes in land cover were homogenized by a 20-person professional pannel.9 main descriptors were defined, then for every descriptor 3 Variant were defined( express possible moods from most critical to the best). In the next step three scenario based on strong consistency with 15 years interval were obtained by Cross-Impact Balance matrix and Monte Carlo Simulation in Scenario Wizard. Finally, the resulting scenarios, based on the most effective in conservation of earth's natural coverage and continuity of stability, with titles balanced ecological changes, relatively balanced ecological changes and imbalanced ecological changes were named.