Predict The drought situation in the province of lorestan during the Years of 2013-2030 Using Down-scaling output of 4 general circulation model
Subject Areas : Geopolitic
Fatemeh Dargahian
1
(رییس گروه تحقیقات هواشناسی کاربردی استان لرستان)
Behrooz Parvaneh
2
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد خرم آباد)
Hengameh Shiravand
3
(کارشناس تحقیقات هواشناسی کاربردی)
Keywords: Drought, Climate Change, climate models, Downscaling, index SPI, Lorestan province,
Abstract :
One of the consequences of climate change, is drought. Identification, monitoring, and evaluation of the occurrence of droughts is very important.Studying the drought phenomenon in the Lorestan province of Iran is important, both in terms of agricultural production and horticulture . In this study, the effects of droughts due to climate change were studied. We analyzed the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to accomplish this. We analyzed the circulation model (HADCM - INCM-IPCM-NCCCSM). We examined scenarios (B1, A2, A1B) with a statistical model. The statistical model we used was LARS-WG version 5, the fine-scale LARS-WG. Nine synoptic stations have been approved to evaluate the climate parameters. The climate parameters evaluated were: Minimum temperature, Maximum temperature, Rainfall and sunshine hours. This study covered the period 2011-2030 using this model. The final forecast according to the weight of each scenario and Hormel, The Synoptic prediction Nasraqlymy for all sites in this study has been done. The results show that the average of all the stations in the first and second volume will increase rainfall forecast .Next, we analyze the rainfall data, to evaluate the status of drought in the province. We reviewed the SPI drought index on the scale annually. The results show that over the next two decades, drought at most stations is reduced. We also found that wet conditions increased in the overall state of synoptic stations in through most of the coming years to 2030.
