Application of Era-Based Cellular Planning for Crisis Management of Earthquake in Tehran with Emphasis on Scenario Planning

Subject Areas : Urban Management Studies

mohadeseh Azimi ¹ ()
A. A. Pourezzat ² ()
آرین Gholipour ³ ()
A. A. Saadabadi ⁴ ()

Received: 2014-09-23 Accepted : 2014-11-22 Published : 2014-11-22

Keywords: Crisis management, Earthquake of Tehran, Scenario Planning, Era-Based Cellular Planning,

Abstract :

Tehran including earthquake-prone cities in the world those Seismic scientists have repeatedly warned about the earthquake in it. Recently, scientists have considered scenario planning and comprehensive programs for disaster. Therefore, era-based cellular planning (ECP) which has many scenarios to confront with probability future is suggested. For investigating the possibility of using this planning was interviewed with ten experts at universities and related organizations and used thematic technique for analysis data. 6 themes- how to scenario planning, relations between scenarios, step by step scenario planning and the most important scenarios for each phase - has finally been found. Paying attention to knowledge of scenario planning based on ECP's characteristics such as dividing scenarios to sub-scenarios, creating synergetic relations between sub-scenarios and consideration to era of each scenario is the innovation of research which shows that scenario planning is possible and it is necessary for studying in infrastructures to create better crisis management.

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