Recognition and analysis of key factors affecting forest land use change in Fandoglou forest are using futurist research approach (cross-structural analysis and environmental scanning)

Subject Areas : Agriculture, rangeland, watershed and forestry

Khalil Valizadeh Kamran ¹ , maryam sadeghi ² , Sayed Asadollah Hejazi ³

1 - Department of Remote sensing and GIS , University of Tabriz
2 - 2MSc. student of remote sensing and GIS, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences of Tabriz University, I.R.Iran
3 - Department of Geomorphology University of Tabriz

Received: 2021-10-06 Accepted : 2022-05-16 Published : 2023-09-23

Keywords: Forest Utility Changes, Futurism, Structural analysis, Fandoqlu, MicMac Software,

Abstract :

In order to better manage natural ecosystems, man-made, long-term planning can help environmental planners and natural resource managers make more informed decisions. The purpose of this study is to identify the key factors affecting land use change in Fandolo forest area with a future research approach. At the beginning of the study, 19 factors affecting forest use changes in various economic, social, physical, natural and political dimensions were approved by experts. Dimensions 19 * 19 were designed and provided to experts for weighting from numbers 3 to 0, which were three high and zero effects without impact and weighting.The effect of variables was directly and indirectly analyzed in MICMAC software. Finally, eight effective factors in changing the forest use of Fandolo region were identified. Among the key factors of tourist factor, land use, distance from village and population, logging, vegetation, motivation to change from agricultural to residential and height are the most important key factors in the future of the regional system.