Land use change modeling using artificial neural network and markov chain (Case study: Middle Coastal of Bushehr Province)

Subject Areas : Geospatial systems development

Mehdi Gholamalifard ¹ , Mohsen Mirzayi ² , Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari ³

1 - Assis. Prof. College of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University
2 - MSc. Graduated of Environment, College of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University
3 - MSc. Graduated of Environment, College of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University

Received: 2013-04-07 Accepted : 2013-11-30 Published : 2014-04-21

Keywords:

Abstract :

Coastal lands of Bushehr Province has a high importance in terms of marine exporting and importing, oil and gas reserves, agriculture,  nuclear plant, suitable condition for fishing and tourist attractions. Therefore new desirable methods for monitoring and modeling changes are required to be used in these areas. This study was performed with the aimed of monitoring and modeling land use changes using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Markov Chain in Land Change Modeler (LCM) in 23 years period (1990-2011). After model accuracy assessment using kappa coefficient, land cover map of the year 2016 was predicted by the 2006-2011 calibration period. The results indicated that two trends include changes from open lands to agricultural and then quitting these agricultural lands have been observed during the study period. Such that, the agricultural area has increased to 19715.76 hectares from 1990 to 2006,but between 2005 to 2011, only 14.48% of agricultural lands has remained unchanged and the large area  of those were finally left. In this study, LCM was able to predict 0.76 of changes correctly. So that it was predicted 12000 hectares increasing of extent urban development in the coastal lands of Bushehr Province in 2016.

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