Identification and analysis of drivers affecting the development of the urban tourism industry with an emphasis on foresight and scenario writing (case study: Zanjan city)

Subject Areas : Urban planning

Ali Khaksari Rafsanjani ¹ , Akbar Lotfi ²

1 - professor planning group of urban planning and regional development , faculty of social sciences , allameh tabataba " i university , tehran , iran
2 - Department of Urban Planning and Regional Development, Faculty of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2022-10-24 Accepted : 2023-01-30 Published : 2023-01-21

Keywords: Urban Tourism, The city of Zanjan, scenario-writing, Futurology,

Abstract :

In planning and managing of tourism development using modern methods is highly important. One of these new methods is the use of the future-research method and the use of different scenarios for the development of tourism, which by using these methods tries to draw different futures according to the key effective factors for the development of Zanjan tourism. The purpose of the current research is future research and scenario planning in the development and improvement of the tourism industry in City of Zanjan based on the method of cross-effects analysis. It is exploratory and based on future-research and scenario planning. In this research, in order to find key factors, available documents, library documents and semi-open interviews were used, and after identifying the components, MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze and prioritize the factors. Analysis of 13 factors were selected as key factors. These 13 factors respectively are: urban integrated management, implementing encouraging policies, decreasing the constraints, internal security, private sector, citizen participation, NGOs, urban branding, strategic location of the city, the international role of the city and province, enhancing environmental awareness, economic growth rate, religious and ritual events, qualitative and quantitative development of handicrafts.The 13 factors were used to write the scenarios. Consequently by using experts opinions and setting up panels, 46 desirable to undesirable cases could be classified and finally 4 scenarios with high compatibility for the city of Zanjan identified. 3 scenarios were in desirable situation and one in critical situation for the city of Zanjan was imaginable. At the end in order to pass through the critical situation to desirable situation strategies and plans were suggested.Extended AbstractIntroductionThe strategic location of Zanjan province and city of Zanjan on the transit route from the center to the west and northwest of the country and the existence of historical, cultural and natural tourist attractions of Zanjan make the province and city a suitable case for attracting tourists and use it a tool for development. Although with such capacities the province has not adequately used them for its development. Tourism development needs to be redefined by provincial managers and planners so that they can reach a suitable future for the economic and social progression. By examining the effective components in the tourism development of City of Zanjan, the first and most important question that comes to mind is in which direction the future of tourism in City of Zanjan is moving and how and with what factors and components this future can be achieved and be led to the desired future?Theoretical foundations of research:Foresight: Ben Martin defines foresight as follows: "Foresight is the process of systematic effort to look at the long-term future of science, technology, environment, economy and society, with the aim of identifying emerging common technologies. And the strengthening of strategic research areas, which probably bring the most economic and social benefits. (Nazimi and Qadiri, 1385, 27)Scenario: A scenario refers to stories related to several plausible futures that a government, organization or company will likely face.Tourism: "The set of activities of a person or people who travel to a place other than their normal place of life and stay there for at least one night and at most one year, and the purpose of their travel is to spend leisure time. Of course, goals such as employment and earning are not included in it.”              ( Heydari Chianeh, 2009,9) Accordingly, those who include this definition are also called touristsUrban tourism: Urban tourism refers to tourism activities that take place in urban areas and include interactions between visitors and urban environments.Research materials and methods:In terms of practical purpose, in terms of method, the present research has been carried out qualitatively and in some cases, quantitatively and qualitatively mixed at the exploratory level and based on the future-research approach and scenario planning. In this research, expert Delphi model, MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software, future research and scenario planning approaches have been used.Research findings13 factors were extracted from among the influential factors in the findings of the research and the effective factors in the upper-level documents of the province, which seem to have a high impact on the prosperity and development of the tourism industry in City of Zanjan, which are the key effective factors in tourism and attracting tourists, were identified as follows: integrated urban management and application of incentive policies, reducing restrictions, internal security, private sector, citizen participation, non-governmental organizations, urban branding, strategic location of the city, international role of the city and province , promotion of environmental awareness, economic growth rate, ritual and religious ceremonies, quantitative and qualitative development of handicraftsTo write the scenario, a total of 46 possible situations were determined for 13 identified key factors. These situations are considered for each variable from a very desirable situation to a critical situation. Scenario Wizard software with heavy calculations makes it possible to extract all kinds of scenarios, including strong scenarios, scenarios with weak probability, scenarios with compatibility and high compatibility. The scenarios presented by the scenario wizard are: 4 scenarios with high compatibility, 6222 scenarios with weak compatibility and 206 incompatible scenarios. The results show that 4 scenarios are more likely to occur in the future tourism development of the province.Conclusions and suggestions:According to the findings, scenarios 1, 2, and 3 are the best leading scenarios for the development of tourism in the province, although scenario 1 is more favorable and ideal than the other two scenarios. Scenarios 2 and 3 are also considered favorable scenarios, which are different from the first scenario only in the two factors of internal security and strategic location of the city, and are on intermediate and relatively favorable scenarios. Scenario 4 will also be a critical scenario, and with the realization of this scenario, the situation of the influencing factors of tourism development will reach the worst state. In this scenario, all 13 key factors of the trend are on the verge of crisis or crisis, this scenario does not have positive points and favorable key factors. As a result, with the realization of the first scenario, 100% of the determining factors of tourism development will be realized. All 13 key factors in this scenario are desirable key factors and none of the factors were in a static or critical trend and with the passage of time, there are positive changes in the tourism development of City of Zanjan. The possible situations selected in this scenario are: strengthening development-oriented and program-oriented management and applying extensive incentive policies, removing some of the disturbing restrictions to attract tourists, strengthening internal security, paying attention to the private sector and large-scale investment. The high participation of citizens, in the extensive strengthening of non-governmental organizations, in the field of branding, the creation of new features and the development of current unique features, the development of relations between Iran and Europe and the colorful role of the corridor from the center to the northwest, the transformation of the province into the regional center of the northwest country, extensive production of educational content to increase environmental awareness, positive economic growth rate, highlighting of existing ceremonies through media power, state of development and extensive support of handicrafts in City of Zanjan, all of these factors have a great positive impact on the development of tourism. As a result, the perspective of this scenario will show an ideal situation of tourism in City of Zanjan. Considering that Zanjan province and especially City of Zanjan has high tourism capacities, but this potential has not been fully used yet. In this regard, there is a need to provide proposals to improve the current situation and clarify a clear path to achieve that desirable future, considering the favorable scenario for the future of Zanjan tourism. These suggestions based on the desired scenarios are as follows:Reviewing the current management that has little integration and moving towards development-oriented, target-oriented and integrated urban management and using experienced and expert managers in organizations, institutions and sectors that are interested in city tourism, removing or reducing some of Limitations in the future plans, optimal use of the strategic location of City of Zanjan, holding festivals, as well as holding craft exhibitions, modifying the norms and behaviors of accepting tourists, participation of local people in urban development plans and programs, use of branding. religion of the city, identification and investigation of regions and areas with potential for tourism and introducing them to domestic and foreign investors, development of infrastructure, improvement and strengthening of service and entertainment centers, improvement of city entrances, strengthening and development of handicraft and traditional industries of the province with Cultural and artistic attitude in relation to the development of the tourism industry.

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