Estimation model of oil productions Price in Iran

Subject Areas : Industrial Management

ramiar refaei ¹ (islamic azad university of khorasgan, isfahan)
Mostafa Baghbanyan ² (department of economics,islamicazad university of sanandaj)

Received: 2018-09-23 Accepted : 2019-05-22 Published : 2019-07-02

Keywords: convergence, oil products prices, exchange rate, Crude oil,

Abstract :

Abstract:One of the most important factors in determining the price of oil products is the price of crude oil and the exchange rate. Crude oil is the main source of refiners in the production of petroleum products, and exchange rate changes are expected to be expected by producers and demanders, and ultimately oil products. In this paper, taking advantage of influential factors, using The convergence approach (FMOLS, CCR, DOLS) and for the period 1969-1999, the oil price model is evaluated. The estimated results showed that in three models (except for the model of furnace as dependent variable), the price of crude oil has a positive and significant effect on the price of long-term oil products, and in all four models, the exchange rate has positive effects of meaning You have the price of oil products in Iran. Short-term results also indicate that the process of moving the variables toward satisfactory long-term equilibrium is satisfactory. Among the other points examined in the paper is the comparison of the relative effect of these two variables on the price of oil products, which indicate that the exchange rate coefficient in the models is larger than the crude oil price coefficient, ie any increase in the price of crude oil, the price of the products to the exchange rate, will further increase. Therefore, for the Iranian economy, stabilizing the exchange rate and reducing its fluctuations will create a more stable trend in the price of oil products.

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