Chaotic Analysis of Climate Change on Parishan Lake's Drought
Subject Areas :Farhang Rahmani 1 , Mohammad Hadi Fattahi 2
1 - Civil Eng. Department, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran
2 - Civil Eng. Dept., Marvdasht Islamic Azad University
Keywords: delay time, Phase space reconstruction, extreme climate indices, drought index,
Abstract :
Chaos theory has been applied for analyzing the mechanism of climate change effect on the drought of Parishan Lake. SPI, as well as several extreme climate indices, is measured, and several parameters (precipitation, evaporation, and temperature) affecting the drought are considered. A chaos analysis is finally conducted on them. Under these circumstances, a control basin is considered to investigate the behavior of the trajectories in the phase space under the Parishan sub-basin. The findings indicate that besides climate change impacts, an intra-basin factor has intensified the drought phenomenon. Results reveal that this intra-basin parameter affects the lake's drought more than climate change. Destructive activities, such as the excessive use of underground water resources and conversion of the natural land resources for agricultural use, can be mentioned. Consequently, the control of these parameters (or in other words, permitted abstraction of groundwater and adaptation) is likely to lead to control and mitigate the lake's drought.
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