Evaluation of Exchange Market Pressure and Degree of Government Intervention by Co-integration Technique: Case Study of Iran
Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economicsmahmood baghjari 1 , Ebrahim Hoseini nasab 2 , Reza Najarzadeh 3
1 - دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
Keywords: Exchange rate, E4, E5, JEL Classification: C3, F3 Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, Intervention Index, Foreign Reserve, Co-integration Technique,
Abstract :
Abstract Exchange market pressure (EMP) is an important index for evaluating the changes of exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves simultaneously. In this paper, exchange market pressure is calculated based on Weymark approach during 1989: Q1- 2012:Q4. The method applied for estimating EMP is Co-integration technique by using Johansen-Juselius (JJ) technique. The results have represented that, during the period, there is a pressure on exchange rate and about 44% of exchange market pressure is attracted by foreign exchange and remaining 56% absorbed by the changes in exchange rate.
منابع
- اندرس، والتر.(1386). اقتصاد سنجی سریهای زمانی با رویکرد کاربردی. ترجمه مهدی صادقی شاهدانی و سعید شوالپور، دانشگاه امام صادق.
- حیدری، حسن و عریانی، بهاره.(1392). تجربه بحران ارزی ترکیه در سالهای 2000 – 2001 میلادی؛ درسهایی برای ایران. مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس، دفتر مطالعات اقتصادی، شماره مسلسل: 12994.
- حیدری، حسن و عریانی، بهاره. (1392)، تجربه بحران ارزی کره جنوبی در دهه 1990 (درسهایی برای ایران). مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس، دفتر مطالعات اقتصادی، شماره مسلسل: 13626.
- شاکری، عباس. (1392). تحلیل وضعیت اقتصادی کشور، ارزیابی وضعیت متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی. مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس، دفتر مطالعات اقتصادی، کد موضوعی: 220، شماره مسلسل: 13479.
- Anjan, Pandy.(2012). Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Market pressure: The Case of Nepal. Department of Economics, American University, Washington, DC 20016.
- Bahmani Oskooee, M and Berstein, D.J. (1999). Exchange market pressure during the current managed float. Applied Economic Letters, 6:585-588.
- Connolly, M. and Da Silveira, J.D. (1979). Exchange market pressure in postwar Brazil: an application of the Girton-Roper monetary model. The American Economic Review, 69(3): 448–454.
- Gilal, Muhammad Akram. (2011). Exchange market pressure and monetary policy: a case study of Pakistan. University of Glasgow.
- Kim, I. (1985). Exchange market pressure in Korea: An application of Girton-Roper monetary model: Note. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 17 (2):258-263.
- Socorro, Maria, Bautista, Gochoco and C.Bautista, Carlos. (2005). monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines. Journal of Macroeconomics 27(2), 153-168.
- Modeste, N.C. (1981). Exchange market pressure during the 1970s in Argentina: an application of the Girton and Roper monetary model. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 13 (2): 234-240.
- Modeste, N. (2005). The impact of the foreign debt burden on exchange market pressure in Guyana, 1968-2000: An application of the error correction methodology. The Journal of Development Areas, 38 (2): 25-39.
- Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2002). The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working PaperNo. 8963.
- Roper, D.E. and Turnovsky, S.J. (1980). optimal exchange market intervention in a simple stochastic macro model. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 13 (2):296–309.
- Stavarek, Daniel. (2010). Exchange market pressure and defacto exchange rate regime in the Euro-Candidates, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 13(2): 119-132
- Taner, Evan. (2002). Exchange market pressure, currency crises, and monetary policy:additional evidence from emerging markets. IMF working paper, wp/02/14.
- Taslim, M.A. (2003). A monetary approach to exchange market Disequilibrium in Australia: 1975-197” Australian Economic Papers, 42(2) :183-196.
- Weymark, D.N. (1995). Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada. Journal of International Economics 39 (3): 273–295.
- Weymark, D.N. (1997). Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 16 (2): 55–79.
- Weymark, D.N. (1998). A general approach to measuring exchange market pressure. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(1): 106–121.