macroeconomic variables, economic sanctions and the price index of the technical and engineering services industry in Iran's capital market; ARDL approach

Subject Areas : Journal of Capital Market Analysis

Arash danialian ¹ (Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran)
mahbube delfan ² (Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran)

Received: 2023-08-15 Accepted : 2023-12-05 Published : 2023-11-22

Keywords: ARDL, Capital Market, Macroeconomic Variables, technical and engineering services industry,

Abstract :

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, inflation rate, exchange rate, as well as the global commodity price index and economic sanctions on the price index of the technical and engineering services industry in Iran's capital market . This study, which is an application of the autocorrelation model with distributed lag (ARDL), has been carried out using monthly data during the period of 1387-1400. The results of the pattern estimation indicate that our dynamic pattern is moving towards the long-term pattern. Also, the results of the error correction model show that 91% of the deviation of the model from its long-term path is corrected by the model variables every year. According to the results, the global commodity price index and the sanctions index have negative effects, and the variables of the exchange rate and inflation rate have positive and significant effects on the price index of the technical engineering services industry. Also the global commodity price index has the highest elasticity compared to other research variables.