State Dependent Effects of Monetary Aggregates on Exchange Market Pressure in Iran's Economy
Subject Areas : Journal of Capital Market AnalysisMohsen Tooti 1 , Seyed Yahya Abtahi 2 , Jalil Totonchi 3 , Zohreh tabatabaeinasab 4
1 - Ph.D. student, Department of economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
2 - Assistant professor, Department of economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
3 - Assistant professor, Department of economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
4 - Assistant professor, Department of economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
Keywords: Base Money, Exchange Market Pressure, Liquidity, Markov Switching GARCH model, Money,
Abstract :
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of monetary aggregates on exchange market pressure of Iran's economy using quarterly data and during the period of 2001:02- 2021:04. For this purpose, exchange market pressure index has been calculated by Edwards (2002) and Kumah (2007) approach; The results show that the exchange market pressure index of Iran's Economy follows a nonlinear pattern. After that, using the unit root test of Lee and Strazisich (2003), which is based on the minimum Lagrange coefficient (LM) test, the time series has been confirmed in terms of the structural break point, and then using by the approach proposed by Lee and Strazisich (2003), the residual of the time series has been extracted. The results of Markov Switching GARCH model indicate that in the low regime of exchange market pressure, the monetary base variable with a coefficient of 0.29 has the greatest effect on the pressure of the Iranian currency market, followed by liquidity and money variables respectively with coefficients 0.06 and 0.01 increase the pressure of the currency market, with the switch of the regime and being in the high regime of exchange market pressure, the variables of monetary base, liquidity and money with the coefficients of 0.88, 0.54 and 0.31 lead to pressure in the currency market, therefore, the application of contractionary monetary policy and control of monetary aggregates should be considered as a strategic point for economic policy makers.
