Forecast of climatologically events using improved grey model (Case Study: Qazvin Province Climatology)
محورهای موضوعی : Mathematical Engineeringمریم کریمی خواجه قیاسی 1 , علیرضا علینژاد 2
1 - MSc. Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
کلید واژه: Forecast, metabolism, Grey Model,
چکیده مقاله :
The theory of grey system is used when sufficient information of the community under study is not in hand. The grey forecast model is proper when the information variety is fix and certain. Grey model can apply some additional computations to improve forecasting activities when data is insufficient. Through using improved grey model, the assessment error decreases significantly. This study made use of the mean maximum daily temperature data collected by Qazvin meteorological station, from August 2001 to August 2013. The findings revealed that the grey model metabolism method can reduce errors and improve the precision of forecasting the mean variable of maximum daily temperature.
نظریه سیستم خاکستری زمانی استفاده می شود که اطلاعات کافی از جامعه مورد مطالعه در دست نیست. مدل پیش بینی خاکستری مناسب زمانی می باشد که تنوع اطلاعات ثابت و مشخص است. مدل خاکستری می تواند برخی از محاسبات اضافی برای بهبود فعالیت های پیش بینی زمانی که داده ها کافی نیستند به کار رود. با استفاده از مدل خاکستری بهبود یافته، خطای ارزیابی به طور قابل توجهی کاهش می یابد. این مطالعه با استفاده از میانگین حداکثر داده های دمای روزانه جمع آوری شده توسط ایستگاه هواشناسی قزوین از آگوست 2001 تا اوت 2013 انجام شد. یافته ها نشان داد که روش متابولیسم مدل خاکستری می تواند اشتباهات را کاهش داده و دقت پیش بینی میانگین متغیر حداکثر دمای روزانه را بهبود بخشد.
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