Price Transmission, Threshold Behavior and Asymmetric Adjustment in Iranian Poultry Market

محورهای موضوعی : Camel

م. کاوسی کلاشمی ¹ , پ. خلیق خیاوی ² , خلیق خیاوی ³

1 - Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
2 - Department of Agricultural Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
3 - Department of Agricultural Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1392/11/19 تاریخ پذیرش : 1393/03/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1394/03/11

کلید واژه: asymmetric price transmission, poultry markets, spatial price transmission, threshold vector error correction model,

چکیده مقاله :

The Iranian poultry sector has experienced many significant structural changes in recent years. Such changes may have influenced price dynamics and transmission of shocks through marketing channels especially on retail markets. This paper investigate price transmission, threshold behavior and asymmetric adjustment in poultry sector of Ardebil (AR), east Azerbaijan (EA) and west Azerbaijan (WA) provinces using weekly price data for the period covering 1998 through 2012. Our analysis uses a threshold cointegration model that permits asymmetric adjustment to positive and negative price shocks. R software is used for data analyzing. Main findings reveal existence of asymmetry in price transmission for all markets. Based on minimizing of the sum of squared error (SSR) criterion the estimated threshold for EA-AR, WA-AR and EA-WA markets are (0.38, 1.217), (1.61, 0.211), (0.38, 1.95), respectively. As another try the thresholds are estimated using TVECM methodology and the same results are found.

چکیده انگلیسی:

بخش مرغ ایران تغییرات ساختاری معنی ­دار بسیاری را طی سال­های اخیر شاهد بوده است. چنین تغییراتی ممکن است پویایی­های قیمت و انتقال شوک­ها در کانال­های بازاریابی را به خصوص در بازارهای خرده­ فروشی تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. این پژوهش انتقال قیمت، رفتار آستانه­ای و تعدیل نامتقارن قیمت در بخش مرغ استان­های اردبیل (AR)، آذربایجان شرقی (EA) و آذربایجان غربی (WA) با استفاده از داده­های هفتگی قیمت طی سال­های 1998 تا 2012 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. تحلیل ما از یک الگوی همگرایی آستانه­ای بهره برده که امکان تعدیل نامتقارن نسبت به شوک­های مثبت و منفی قیمت را فراهم می­آورد. نرم­افزار R به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. یافته­های اصلی بیانگر وجود عدم تقارن در انتقال قیمت برای تمام بازارها است. براساس کمینه­سازی شاخص مجموع مربعات خطا (SSR) آستانه‌های برآوردی برای بازارهای EA-AR، WA-AR و EA-WA به ترتیب برابر با (217/1، 38/0)، (211/0، 61/1)، (95/1، 38/0) می­باشد. در تلاشی دیگر آستانه­ها با استفاده از روش­شناسی TVECM برآورد شد و نتایج مشابه­ای حاصل شد.

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