شبیه‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و دینامیک شهری (مطالعه موردی: شهر مراغه)
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای
هوشنگ سرور
1
(استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه،مراغه،ایران)
کلید واژه: شهر مراغه, زنجیره مارکوف, سیستم‌های اطلاعات جغرافیایی, دینامیک شهری, ماشین‌های خودکار سلولی,
چکیده مقاله :
در دهه‌های اخیر همگام با رشد شهرنشینی، مدل‌های مختلفی جهت بررسی و پیش‌بینی رشد شهری بکار گرفته شده است.در این زمینه، ماشین‌های خودکار سلولی در چهارچوب رویکرد سیستمی وارد مباحث جغرافیایی شد. مدل‌های مختلفی به منظور ایجاد قوانین گذار در ماشین‌های خودکار سلولی ترکیب می‌شوند که در این زمینه می‌توان به زنجیره مارکوف اشاره کرد.در زنجیره مارکوف،حالت آینده یک سیستم تنها وابسته به حالت پیشین سیستم است، درحالیکه در ماشین‌های خودکار سلولی،حالت آینده یک سیستم نه‌تنها وابسته به حالت سابق، بلکه وابسته به حالت همسایگان نیز می‌باشد و همین ویژگی است که به آن ماهیت فضایی یا جغرافیایی می‌بخشد. پایش الگوی رشد شهر درطی تقریبا 30 سال گذشته روند توسعه شهر مراغه عمدتا در جهات شرقی و بر روی زمین‌های بایر رانشان می دهد.شهر مراغه در بین سال‌های 1369 تا 1379 یک رشد نسبتا سریعی را تجربه کرده و پس از آن نیز به صورت پیوسته عمدتا به سمت شرق توسعه یافته است. شبیه‌سازی فضایی الگوی رشد شهر نشان می‌دهد که در سال‌های آتی این روند همچنان تداوم خواهد یافت. بطوریکه در طی ۱۷ سال آینده 774 هکتار از اراضی بایر و دیم و درحدود 417 هکتار از اراضی کشاورزی و باغات به ساخت وسازهای شهری تبدیل خواهند شد. همپوشانی فازی لایه‌های مختلف نشان می‌دهد که مکان‌یابی اولیه توسعه فیزیکی شهر مراغه به طور مناسبی صورت گرفته و بهتر است روند فعلی توسعه با تمایل بیشتر به سمت جنوب‌شرق، اجتناب از ساخت و ساز در شیب‌های تند و همچنین جلوگیری از تغییر کاربری اراضی کشاورزی به شهری تداوم یابد.
In recent decades, along with urbanization, various models have been used to urban growth prediction. In this regard, Urban models based on the automata technique have emerged under the paradigm of a self-organizing system, with cellular automata (CA) being the simplest but most popular in action What happens to each grid cell is defined by a transition rule or transition rules.If the transition rule requires that the state of a grid cell is only dependent on its state at a previous time step, such a model is called a Markov model, and is not considered a CA model. Cellular automata models have one additional feature: the transition rules operate on cells based on the local neighborhood of those cells. In this research, the spatial expansion of Maragheh city was simulated using Cellular automata- Markov chain hybrid model. Satellite images (Landsat) were used for land cover mapping, urban growth monitoring, and modeling land cover changes. Results represent high efficiency of Cellular automata- Markov chain in the urban spatial growth simulation. In the past three decades,development trend of Maragheh city has been more towards barren lands.According to the output of the model,this trend will continue over the next 17 years. So that, the city will be expended due to the transition of barren lands cells state to urban cells state,and 774 hectares from surrounding barren lands will be converted to urban lands. However, with continue of the previous trend, nearly 417 hectares of good agricultural lands will also change to urban lands.
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