شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های مؤثر بر خلاقیت شهری با رویکرد سناریونویسی (موردپژوهی: کلانشهر رشت)
محورهای موضوعی : معماری و شهرسازی و سکونتگاههای انسانیمعصومه میرغروی 1 , رسول صمدزاده 2 , محمدتقی معصومی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری, گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران
2 - دانشیارگروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل ا،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران
کلید واژه: رشت, شهر خلاق, خلاقیت شهری, سناریونویسی, نیروهای پیشران,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: پژوهش حاضر در راستای شناسایی نیروهای پیشران و عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر خلاقیت شهری در کلانشهر رشت و شناسایی و تحلیل سناریوهای توسعه خلاقیت شهری در این شهر انجام گردید.روش شناسی تحقیق: در این پژوهش از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل استفاده شد. در واقع 44 شاخص مؤثر در تحقق شهر خلاق به صورت زوجی مقایسه شده و میزان تأثیرات این عوامل بر یکدیگر با استفاده از پرسشنامه کارشناسان در نرم افزار میک‌مک ارزیابی شد.یافته ها و بحث: نتایج مطالعات نشان داد که می توان 7 عامل (تکنولوژی و فناوری های نوین، کیفیت گردشگری، دسترسی به فناوری های اینترنتی، برنامه و فعالیت های آموزشی، تنوع فرصت‌های شغلی، نمایشگاه‌های صنایع دستی و بومی و تعداد کارآفرینان) را عنوان عوامل کلیدی در ایجاد شهر خلاق رشت مطرح کرد. برای تدوین سناریوهای توسعه شهر خلاق، اقدام به تهیه سبد سناریو برای 7 عامل کلیدی گردید؛ به این ترتیب که برای هریک از عوامل، سه فرض خوش بینانه، بینابین و بدبینانه در نظرگرفته شد. درمجموع 21 وضعیت احتمالی طراحی و براساس ترکیب 21 وضعیت احتمالی، تعداد 2187 سناریوی ترکیبی استخراج شد که شامل همه وضعیت های احتمالی و پیش‌روی توسعه خلاقیت کلانشهر رشت در آینده است.نتیجه گیری: براساس نتایج نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد، 4 سناریو با احتمال وقوع بسیار بالا در شرایط پیش روی توسعه شهر رشت متصور گردید که از میان آن‌ها تنها سناریوی دوم شرایط مطلوب و امیدوارکننده را نشان داد. سناریوی اول سناریوی نسبتاً مطلوب و حالت بینابینی داشت. دو سناریوی دیگر شرایط بحرانی را نشان دادند.
The expansion of different problems in cities has clarified the necessity for comprehensive attention to useful strategies to optimize the life of residents in cities. In line with these new developments, new concepts and terms like creative city entered the area of urban management and planning and was used by urban scholars and planners for describing the new roles and functions of cities.Cross impact analysis is a method for identifying the key factors. Micmac software was used for this analysis.In this regard, the results of studies indicated that seven factors (Modern technologies, Tourism quality, Access to internet technologies, Educational programs and activities, Variety of job opportunities, Handicrafts and local exhibitions and Number of entrepreneurs) can be identified as the key factors in creating the creative city of Rasht. Then, a 21 * 21 cross matrix was designed for seven key factors based on the possible states of Rasht development with a creative approach to prepare the scenario portfolio and it was then provided to experts along with a questionnaire and a guide on how to respond. The data collected at this stage were entered into scenario wizard software for analysis. Based on the combination of 21 probable states, 2187 hybrid scenarios were extracted including all probable states and the progress of Rasht creativity development in the future. The scenarios provided by the Scenario Wizard software included:- Four scenarios with high compatibility- 1542 scenarios with low compatibility - and 641 scenarios without compatibility
Alizadeh, M., Lotfi, H. (2019). Explaining the Effectiveness of the Membership of the Creative Cities Network on Sustainable Urban Development. Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 14(3), 661-675. (in persian)
Aligica. P.D (2011). a critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell’s contribution to the foundations of futures studies, future, Vol. 43, No. 6, pp: 610-617.
AuthentiCity. (2008). Creative City Planning Framework a Supporting Document to the Agenda for Prosperity: Prospectus for a Great City. Prepared for the City of Toronto.
Bashir, Y. (2011). The Place of Creativity and Intuition in Strategic Thinking, Journal of Police Human Development, Vol 8, No. 38, pp: 29-49. (in persian)
Deffner, A., & Vlachopoulou, C. (2011). Creative city: A new challenge of strategic urban planning? Department of Planning and Regional Development, School of Engineering. University of Thessaly, Volos, 383, 34-48.
Durmaz, S. Bahar (2015), “Analyzing the Quality of Place: Creative Clusters in Soho and Beyoglu”, Journal of Urban Design, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp 93-124. DOI: 10.1080/13574809.2014.972348.
Farzin pak, Sh. (2010). Creative City, Journal of Municipalities, No. 100. (in persian)
Fadaee, D. (2015). Organizing Mashhad's Kohsangi Neighborhood with Emphasis on Creative City Principles, 7th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with Emphasis on Urban Development Strategies, Mashhad. (in persian)
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2001). Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: a role for decision analysis, Journal of management studies, Vol 38, No. 1, pp: 1- 16.
Javid, M., Hoseinpoor, A., & Akbari, M. (2013). Creative City, Strategic Planning, Volume 1, Publishing Tahan. (in persian)
Jay Cermak, T. (2014). Scenario-based planning, Translator: Saeed Khazae et al, Isfahan, Alam Afarin Publications. (in persian)
Khazaee, S. (2015). What and why of futures research, futures research website. (in persian)
Kakiuchi, E. (2015). Culturally creative cities in Japan: Reality and Prospects, city, culture and Society 1-8.
Lindgren, M. & Bandwald, H. (2011). Scenario design - the link between the future and strategy, translated by: Abdulaziz Tatar, Tehran, Publication of Future Center for Defense Science and Technology Research. (in persian)
Lotfi, S., Shahabi, M., & Nikbakht, E. (2016). Feasibility study of creative multi-centered metropolitan network approach in Central Mazandaran metropolitan area, Geography and Development, Vol 14, No. 43, pp: 1-18. (in persian)
Mehdizadeh, J. (2006). Strategic Planning of Urban Development Recent Global Experiences and Its Position in Iran, Tehran, Sima Payam Publishing Company. (in persian)
Mokhtari, R., Marsoosi, N., Aliakbari, S., & Amini, D. (2015). Explanation of localization criteria of spatial indices of creative city space with Iranian - Islamic approach, Iranian - Islamic Urban Studies Quarterly, No. 22, pp: 23-39. (in persian)
Mousavi, M., & Kahki, F. (2018). A Future Study on Land Preparation: A Look at the Applications of Mac and Wizard Scenarios, Urmia University Press.
PoorAhmad, A., Hamidi, A., Farhadi, E., & Hassan poor, M. (2016). Evaluating the Challenges and Opportunities of Creating a Creative City in Business Free Zones (Case Study: Aras Business Free Zone), Human Settlement Planning Studies, Vol 11, No. 37, pp: 1-18. (in persian)
Postma, T. J. B. M., Liebl, F. (2005). How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Journal of Technological Forecasting& Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 161–173.
Poorahmad, A., hamidi, A., farhadi, E., hosseinpoor, M. (2017). Evaluation of challenges and opportunities creating a creative city in free trade zones (Case Study: Aras Free Trade Zone). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 11(37), 1-19. (in persian)
Rezvani, A. (2009). Village-Town Interactions, Thirteenth Edition, Payame Noor University Press. (in persian)
Saberifar, R., Neyatmoghadam, S. (2018). The study success rate in achieving Innovative and creative cities (case study: the city of Paradise). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 13(3), 613-627. (in persian)
Shamsi, K., karkehabadi, Z., kamyabi, S. (2018). A review study of creative city with an emphasis on urban creativity assessment (Case study: Three districts of Qazvin). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 13(2), 427-443. (in persian)
Sarvar, R., Akbari, M., Amani, M., & Taleshi, M. (2016). Analysis of Urban Neighborhood Performance in terms of Creative City Indicators; Case Study: Bonab City, Geography, Vol 14, No. 48, pp: 322-351. (in persian)
Sajadian, M. (2014). Fourth Wave University, Interactions, and Creative Cities (Optimizing Country Strategy Analysis), Geography and Urban Planning of the Zagros Landscape, Vol 6, No. 19, pp: 39-56. (in persian)
Slaughter R. (1997). Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, ABN Report, Vol 5, No 10, Sydney.
Shamsuddin, S., Hassan, N. R. A., & Bilyamin, S. F. I. (2012). Walkable environment in increasing the livability of a city. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 50, 167-178.
Shaw, Kate (2014), Melbourne’s Creative Spacees Program: Reclaiming the creative city (if not quite the rest of it), City, Culture and Society, 5, 139-147.
Vandarhiden, C. (2012). Scenarios the Art of Strategic Dialogue, translated by: Masoud Monzavi, Tehran, Future of Defense Science and Technology Research Center Publications. (in persian)
Zarghani, H., & Skandarian, M. (2015). Mashhad city based on creative city indexes, 7th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with emphasis on urban development strategies. (in persian)
Zarabi, A., Ghadami, M., & Kanaani, M. (2012). Evaluation of Urban Settlements with Healthy City Approach in Mazandaran Province, Social Welfare Quarterly, Vol 12, No. 47, pp: 131-151. (in persian)
_||_Alizadeh, M., Lotfi, H. (2019). Explaining the Effectiveness of the Membership of the Creative Cities Network on Sustainable Urban Development. Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 14(3), 661-675. (in persian)
Aligica. P.D (2011). a critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell’s contribution to the foundations of futures studies, future, Vol. 43, No. 6, pp: 610-617.
AuthentiCity. (2008). Creative City Planning Framework a Supporting Document to the Agenda for Prosperity: Prospectus for a Great City. Prepared for the City of Toronto.
Bashir, Y. (2011). The Place of Creativity and Intuition in Strategic Thinking, Journal of Police Human Development, Vol 8, No. 38, pp: 29-49. (in persian)
Deffner, A., & Vlachopoulou, C. (2011). Creative city: A new challenge of strategic urban planning? Department of Planning and Regional Development, School of Engineering. University of Thessaly, Volos, 383, 34-48.
Durmaz, S. Bahar (2015), “Analyzing the Quality of Place: Creative Clusters in Soho and Beyoglu”, Journal of Urban Design, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp 93-124. DOI: 10.1080/13574809.2014.972348.
Farzin pak, Sh. (2010). Creative City, Journal of Municipalities, No. 100. (in persian)
Fadaee, D. (2015). Organizing Mashhad's Kohsangi Neighborhood with Emphasis on Creative City Principles, 7th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with Emphasis on Urban Development Strategies, Mashhad. (in persian)
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2001). Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: a role for decision analysis, Journal of management studies, Vol 38, No. 1, pp: 1- 16.
Javid, M., Hoseinpoor, A., & Akbari, M. (2013). Creative City, Strategic Planning, Volume 1, Publishing Tahan. (in persian)
Jay Cermak, T. (2014). Scenario-based planning, Translator: Saeed Khazae et al, Isfahan, Alam Afarin Publications. (in persian)
Khazaee, S. (2015). What and why of futures research, futures research website. (in persian)
Kakiuchi, E. (2015). Culturally creative cities in Japan: Reality and Prospects, city, culture and Society 1-8.
Lindgren, M. & Bandwald, H. (2011). Scenario design - the link between the future and strategy, translated by: Abdulaziz Tatar, Tehran, Publication of Future Center for Defense Science and Technology Research. (in persian)
Lotfi, S., Shahabi, M., & Nikbakht, E. (2016). Feasibility study of creative multi-centered metropolitan network approach in Central Mazandaran metropolitan area, Geography and Development, Vol 14, No. 43, pp: 1-18. (in persian)
Mehdizadeh, J. (2006). Strategic Planning of Urban Development Recent Global Experiences and Its Position in Iran, Tehran, Sima Payam Publishing Company. (in persian)
Mokhtari, R., Marsoosi, N., Aliakbari, S., & Amini, D. (2015). Explanation of localization criteria of spatial indices of creative city space with Iranian - Islamic approach, Iranian - Islamic Urban Studies Quarterly, No. 22, pp: 23-39. (in persian)
Mousavi, M., & Kahki, F. (2018). A Future Study on Land Preparation: A Look at the Applications of Mac and Wizard Scenarios, Urmia University Press.
PoorAhmad, A., Hamidi, A., Farhadi, E., & Hassan poor, M. (2016). Evaluating the Challenges and Opportunities of Creating a Creative City in Business Free Zones (Case Study: Aras Business Free Zone), Human Settlement Planning Studies, Vol 11, No. 37, pp: 1-18. (in persian)
Postma, T. J. B. M., Liebl, F. (2005). How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Journal of Technological Forecasting& Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 161–173.
Poorahmad, A., hamidi, A., farhadi, E., hosseinpoor, M. (2017). Evaluation of challenges and opportunities creating a creative city in free trade zones (Case Study: Aras Free Trade Zone). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 11(37), 1-19. (in persian)
Rezvani, A. (2009). Village-Town Interactions, Thirteenth Edition, Payame Noor University Press. (in persian)
Saberifar, R., Neyatmoghadam, S. (2018). The study success rate in achieving Innovative and creative cities (case study: the city of Paradise). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 13(3), 613-627. (in persian)
Shamsi, K., karkehabadi, Z., kamyabi, S. (2018). A review study of creative city with an emphasis on urban creativity assessment (Case study: Three districts of Qazvin). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 13(2), 427-443. (in persian)
Sarvar, R., Akbari, M., Amani, M., & Taleshi, M. (2016). Analysis of Urban Neighborhood Performance in terms of Creative City Indicators; Case Study: Bonab City, Geography, Vol 14, No. 48, pp: 322-351. (in persian)
Sajadian, M. (2014). Fourth Wave University, Interactions, and Creative Cities (Optimizing Country Strategy Analysis), Geography and Urban Planning of the Zagros Landscape, Vol 6, No. 19, pp: 39-56. (in persian)
Slaughter R. (1997). Developing and Applying Strategic Foresight, ABN Report, Vol 5, No 10, Sydney.
Shamsuddin, S., Hassan, N. R. A., & Bilyamin, S. F. I. (2012). Walkable environment in increasing the livability of a city. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 50, 167-178.
Shaw, Kate (2014), Melbourne’s Creative Spacees Program: Reclaiming the creative city (if not quite the rest of it), City, Culture and Society, 5, 139-147.
Vandarhiden, C. (2012). Scenarios the Art of Strategic Dialogue, translated by: Masoud Monzavi, Tehran, Future of Defense Science and Technology Research Center Publications. (in persian)
Zarghani, H., & Skandarian, M. (2015). Mashhad city based on creative city indexes, 7th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with emphasis on urban development strategies. (in persian)
Zarabi, A., Ghadami, M., & Kanaani, M. (2012). Evaluation of Urban Settlements with Healthy City Approach in Mazandaran Province, Social Welfare Quarterly, Vol 12, No. 47, pp: 131-151. (in persian)
