Water Resources Management by Simulation under Virtual Water Scenario in Agricultural Sector, Case Study: Hirmand Catchment, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Strategic planningعلی سردار شهرکی 1 , جواد شهرکی 2 , سید آرمان هاشمی منفرد 3
1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
کلید واژه: Simulation, agricultural sector, Virtual water, Water resource management, Hirmand catchment,
چکیده مقاله :
Due to the frequent drought periods, water consumption increase, and competition of different water-using sectors, the Hirmand catchment is in a critical water status in the Sistan region. This threat has been intensified in recent years. To cope with this problem, we must pay more attention to different types of water use such as virtual water as a water saving method. The present study calculates virtual water demand of agricultural products in the Sistan region in the cropping year of 2013-2014 using water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. Furthermore, impacts of the implementation of the virtual water scenarios are predicted on water resources and consumption over the 2015-2030 period. Results show that tomato and alfalfa have less virtual water demand despite their high water requirements due to their high production yield. Furthermore, wheat and barley have the highest virtual water demand. Also, the results of the WEAP model reveal that in the virtual water scenario, the mean annual water demand is lower than the current account (61% for net efficiency, 17% for current efficiency). Consequently, unmet demand will be reduced about 383 million m3. Therefore, given the prevalence of drought in the region, it is appropriate to implement this scenario to protect water resources. Hence, it is highly recommended to orient planning and investment in agricultural development projects of the Sistan region with the concept of virtual water.
حوضه هیرمند به دلیل وجود خشکسالی، همچنین رشد روز افزون مصارف آب و رقابت بخشهای مختلف، وارد مرحله بحرانی آب شده است، این خطر در سالهای آتی تشدیدتر خواهد شد. بنابراین برای مقابله با آن می بایست نسبت به انواع مصرف آب با حساسیت بیشتری برخورد کرد. از جمله این مصارف، آب مجازی میباشد. در پژوهش حاضر، تقاضای آب مجازی محصولات کشاورزی منطقه سیستان در سال زراعی 93-1392 محاسبه و با استفاده از مدل WEAP اثرات اجرای این سناریو از سال 2015 تا 2030 بر منابع و مصارف آب پیشبینی گردید. طبق نتایج محصولات گوجهفرنگی و یونجه با اینکه نیازآبی بالایی داشتند، اما به سبب عملکرد بالای تولید، تقاضای آب مجازی کمتری داشتهاند، همچنین بیشترین نیاز آب مجازی برای دو محصول گندم و جو بدست آمد. نتایج مدل WEAP نشان داد که در سناریوی آب مجازی، سالیانه به طور میانگین مقدار تقاضای آب 61 درصد برای کارایی خالص و 17 درصد برای کارایی به حالت فعلی کمتر شده است. تقاضای تأمین نشده حدود 383 میلیون متر مکعب کاهش خواهد یافت. بنابراین با توجه به شرایط خشکسالی حاکم بر منطقه، اجرای این سناریو در جهت حفظ منابع آب بسیار مناسب خواهد بود، از اینرو پیشنهاد می شود که طرحهای توسعه کشاورزی در منطقه سیستان با توجه به این مفهوم آب مجازی، برنامهریزی و سرمایهگذاری شوند.
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