Modeling of Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Resources: The Application of Dynamic Systems Approach
محورهای موضوعی : Strategic planning
مصطفی تیموری
1
(استادیارگروه توسعه روستایی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
سیدمهدی میردامادی
2
(دانشیارگروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
Seyed Jamal Farajollah Hosseini
3
(دانشیارگروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
کلید واژه: Dynamic systems, Iran, Modeling, drought, Climate Change, South Khorasan, Scenario,
چکیده مقاله :
The purpose of the present study was the simulation of climate change effects on groundwater resources in Iran by using the dynamic systems approach. The approach was performed through system dynamics modeling process including problem explanation, system description, model development, model testing, and the use of the model for policy analysis. The impact of the application of various exogenous scenarios including drought scenarios, management of water supply and population growth was assessed and the behavior of variables of water resources volume and per capita volume of renewable water of the Southern Khorasan province was simulated by Vensim software for the 2013-2041 period. Data were collected by referring to relevant organizations like South Khorasan Regional Water Organization, South Khorasan Agricultural Organization, and Statistical Center of Iran and the input data of the model were fed into the model in an Excel worksheet. The results showed that the water resource exploitation management scenario had a significant positive effect on the balance of aquifers of South Khorasan Province so that the balance of the province aquifers in the scenario of controlling water resources exploitation has been significantly different from the scenario of the lack of control of different drought in all the studied years. In addition, the results of examination of the province's renewable water showed that droughts have had a negative impact on the volume of renewable water of the province and droughts together with population growth have reduced the province per capita renewable water.
هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی می باشد، در این راستا این مسئله با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم طی مراحل مدل سازی پویایی سیستم شامل بیان مسئله، شرح سیستم، توسعه مدل، تست مدل و استفاده از مدل برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیاست ها دنبال شد و تاثیر اعمال سناریوهای مختلف برون‌زا شامل سناریوهای خشکسالی، مدیریت عرضه آب و رشد جمعیت ارزیابی گردید و رفتار متغیرهای حجم منابع آب و حجم سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان طی سال های 1392 تا 1420 از طریق کاربرد نرم افزار Vensim شبیه سازی شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز با مراجعه به سازمان های زیربط مانند سازمان آب منطقه ای خراسان جنوبی، سازمان جهاد کشاورزی خراسان جنوبی و مرکز آمار ایران جمع آوری گردید و اطلاعات ورودی مدل در قالب فایل اکسل به مدل فراخوانی شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که سناریوی کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آبی، اثر مثبت چشمگیری بر موجودی آبخوان های استان خراسان جنوبی داشته به طوری که موجودی آبخوان های استان در سناریوی اعمال کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آب، نسبت به سناریوی عدم کنترل در خشکسالی های مختلف، در تمامی سال های مورد بررسی، تفاوتی فاحش داشته است، همچنین نتایج بررسی آب تجدید پذیر استان نشان می دهد که خشکسالی ها تاثیر منفی بر حجم آب تجدید پذیر استان داشته و وجود خشکسالی ها به همراه افزایش نرخ جمعیت، سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان را کاهش داده است.
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