Farmers’ Decision-Making Process under Climate Change: Developing a Conceptual Framework
محورهای موضوعی : Decision-making
طاهر عزیزی‌خالخیلی
1
(استادیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران)
توماس آئنیس
2
(رئیس گروه ارتباطات و ترویج کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زیستی، دانشگاه هومبولت، برلین، آلمان)
میثم منتی زاده
3
(دکترای ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، ایران)
غلامحسین زمانی
4
(استاد ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، بخش ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران)
کلید واژه: Farmers’ adaptation, Climate Change, Smallholder farmers, decision-making,
چکیده مقاله :
In recent decades, climate change and frequent droughts have had great impacts on farming systems and have led farmers to become accustomed to these conditions, which are causing problems, especially, for smallholder farmers. With the severe weather events and their adverse effects, especially in arid regions, farmers' adaptation to these changes is an indisputable and critical strategy. Thus, farmers need to make complex decisions about mitigating the adverse effects of climate change to take advantage of newer opportunities as possible. The understanding of the process by which farmers decide to stand facing climate changes and probing into the determinants of the process provide research evidence for policymakers to assist farmers to adapt to climate change effects. This article would establish a conceptual framework, inclusive of factors influencing farmers’ decision-making to adapt to climate change, and would clarify causal relations among these factors. According to the results, household characteristics, economic factors, knowledge, motives and goals, perceived outcomes of adaptation, social, personal norms, perception of climate change, perceived risk and obstacles, attitude towards climate change, prospective perception of climate change, the evaluation of climate change, and adaptation initiatives could influence farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change.
در دهههای اخیر، تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی اثر زیادی بر نظامهای کشاورزی داشته و چالشهای جدی برای کشاورزان، خصوصاً کشاورزان خرده مالک، جهت سازگاری با این قبیل اثرات ایجاد کرده است. بخاطر اثرات نامطلوب وقایع شدید آب و هوایی بر جهان به ویژه در مناطق خشک، سازگاری بخش کشاورزی با این تغییرات بسیار حیاتی است. بنابراین کشاورزان بایستی تصمیمات پیچیدهای برای کاهش اثرات نامطلوب تغییر اقلیم و کسب مزیت از فرصتهای پیش رو اتخاذ کنند. یکی از جنبههای مهم برای سیاستگذارن جهت یاری رساندن به کشاورزان در راستای سازگاری با اثرات تغییر اقلیم مثل خشکسالی، فهم دقیق از فرآیند تصمیمگیری کشاورزان و شناخت سازههای تاثیرگذار بر تصمیمات شان در مواجه با تغییر اقلیم میباشد. این مقاله در تلاش است تا چارچوبی مفهومی از سازههای موثر بر الگوی تصمیمگیری کشاورزان جهت سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم و ارتباط بین این سازهها فراهم آورد. باتوجه به نتایج بدست آمده، سازههای اقتصادی، دانش، انگیزهها و اهداف، نتایج محسوس سازگاری، هنجارهای اجتماعی و شخصی، درک از تغییر اقلیم، درک از ریسک و موانع، نگرش نسبت به تغییر اقلیم، درک آتی از تغییر اقلیم، و ارزیابی ذهنی از تغییر اقلیم و فعالیت های سازگاری میتواند تصمیمگیری کشاورزان برای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد.
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