Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change: A case of Wheat Farmers in Gachsaran, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management
محسن موسایی
1
(استادیارگروه مدیریت کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد گچساران)
کلید واژه: Vulnerability, Climate Change, farmers, Adaptive capacity, Gachsaran County,
چکیده مقاله :
Climate change is one of the most important challenges that affect different parts of human life on the earth. Due to its very close relationship with natural resources and climatic conditions, the agricultural sector is the most affected by this change. Thus, this study aimed to identify the factors affecting the capacity of wheat farmers to adapt their careers to climate change in Gachsaran County, Iran. The research was an applied study in which field data were used in a descriptive-correlational and causal-correlation design to analyse the relationships of the variables. The research population was composed of 1845 wheat farmers working in Gachsaran. Using Cochran’s formula, 318 farmers were selected for the study through simple randomization. A questionnaire, which included personal and professional features, the factors affecting the farmers’ adaptation capacity, and the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, was developed by the researcher. An expert panel was used to address the validity of the developed questionnaire. Using Cronbach’s alpha, the reliability of the questionnaire was measured to be at the acceptable level of 0.72. The results of the multivariate regression showed that social capital, quality of life, the number of people aging over 60 in the family, the number of family members contributing to agriculture, income from agriculture, access to educational services, age, academic degree, total agricultural land, level of experience, and wheat yield per hectare accounted for the bulk of variance in the dependent variables (39.77%).
بخش کشاورزی ارتباط بسیار نزدیکی با شرایط آب و هوایی,دارد، بنابراین بیشتر تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار می گیرد.هدف این تحقیق شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت سازگاری گندمکاران گچساران می باشد. تحقیق حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ نحوه ی گردآوری داده ها میدانی و از نظر بررسی رابطه بین متغیرها از نوع توصیفی- همبستگی و علی-ارتباطی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق گندمکاران شهرستان گچساران به تعداد ۱۸۴۵ نفر می باشد. ۲۴۵نفر از جامعه ی آماری، با استفاده از فرمول شارل کوکران، به عنوان نمونه ی مورد مطالعه انتخاب گردیدند.برای گردآوری داده های مورد نیاز از روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده استفاده شده است. از جمله مزایای این روش این است که همه افراد شانس یکسانی برای انتخاب شدن دارند. جهت جمع آوری اطلاعات از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته استفاده گردید که شامل ویژگی های فردی و حرفه ای پاسخگویان، عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت سازگاری کشاورزان و ادراک کشاورزان از تغییرات اقلیمی بوده است. برای سنجش روایی پرسشنامه از گروه متخصصان و برای پایایی ابزار تحقیق از آلفای کرنباخ استفاده شد، که ضریب آلفای بدست آمده برای پرسشنامه۰/۷۲بدست آمد. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از روش های آمار توصیفی شامل میانگین، واریانس، انحراف معیار، فراوانی و درصد فراوانی و در آمار استنباطی از آزمون ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن و رگرسیون چند متغیره استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون چند متغیره به روش تؤام نشان می دهد که متغیرهای سرمایه اجتماعی، کیفیت زندگی، تعداد اعضای بالای ۶۰ سال خانوار، تعداد اعضای مشارکت کننده در کارکشاورزی، درآمد حاصل از کشاورزی، بهره مندی از خدمات آموزشی و ترویجی، سن، سطح تحصیلات، کل زمین زراعی، میزان تجربه در کشاورزی و میزان عملکرد گندم در هکتار مجموعاً ۳۸/۸درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته را تبیین می کنند.
Adesina, A. A., & Forson, J. B. (1995). Farmers' perceptions and adoption of new agricultural technology: Evidence from analysis in Burkina Faso and Guinea, West Africa. Agricultural Economics, 13(1), 1-9.
Adger, W.N. (2001). Scales of governance and environmental justice for adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Journal of International Development, 13, 921-931.
Barak, B. (2006). Consideration for the impact of climate change information on stated preferences. Unpublished dissertation, University of Rhode Island, United States, Rhode Island. Retrieved January 29, 2011, from Dissertations & Theses: Full Text. (Publication No. AAT 3248223).
Barnett, J. (2001). Adapting to climate change in pacific Island Countries: the problem of uncertainty. World Development, 29, 977-993.
Bekele, W., & Drake, L. (2003). Soil and water conservation decision behaviour of subsistence farmers in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia: a case study of the Hunde-Lafto area. Ecological Economics, 46(3), 437-451.
Below, T.B., Mutabazi, K.D., Kirschke, D., Franke, C., Sieber, S., Siebert, R., & Tscherning, K. (2012). Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socioeconomic household-level variables? Global Environmental Change, 22(1), 223–235.
Brooks, N., & Adger, W.N. (2005). Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity, adaptation policy frameworks for climate change. Blim, E. Spanger Siegfried, I. Burton, E.L. Malone and S. Huq, Eds., Cambridge University Press, New York, PP. 165-182.
Bryan, E., Deressa, T.T., Gbetibouo, G.A., & Ringler, C. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: Options and constraints. Environmental Science & Policy, 12(4), 413–426.
Campbell, D., Barker, D., & McGregor, D. (2011). Dealing with Drought: Small farmers and environmental hazards in Southern St. Elizabeth, Jamaica. Applied Geography, 31(1), 146-158.
Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., & Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 248-255.
Deressa, T.T., Hasan, R.M., Alemu, T., Yesuf, M. & Ringler, C. (2008). Analysing the Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper, 798. Environmental and Production Technology Division, Ethiopia .pp.1-36.
Ebi, K.L., Lim, B., & Aguilar, Y. (2005). Scoping and designing an adaptation process, adaptation policy frameworks for climate change, B. Lim, E. Spanger-Siegfried, I. Burton, E.L. Malone and S. Huq, Eds.. Cambridge University Press, New York, PP. 33- 46.
Ghambar Ali, R., Papzan, A. H., & Afshar Zadeh, N. (2012). Farmers' viewpoints on climate change and adaptation strategies: (Case study: Kermanshah County). Rural Studies, 3(3), 213-192.
Halsnæs, K., & Trærup, S. (2009). Development and climate change: A mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures. Environmental Management (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9273-0, PP. 134-144.
Idrisa1, Y. L., Ogunbameru, B. O., Ibrahim, A. A. & Bawa1, D. B. (2012). Analysis of awareness and adaptation to climate change among farmers in the Sahel Savannah Agro-ecological Zone of Borno State, Nigeria. British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, 2(2), 216-226.
IPCC (1996). Climate change 1995- impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: Scientific- Technical Analyses, Contribution of working Group 2 to the second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
IPCC, (2007). Summary for Policy Makers, Climate change 2007: The physical science Basis, contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jamshidi, A., Nouri Zaman Abadi, S. H., & Ebrahimi, M. S. (2015). Adaptation of farmers to climate change in Sirvan, Ilam Province: Adaptive Effects and Options. Journal of Rural Planning and Research, 2 (10). 96-79.
Khalidi, F., Zarafshani, K., Mirakzadeh, A. A., & Sharafi, L. (2015). Investigating factors affecting farm power adaptation capacity against climate change case study: Sarpol-e Zahab Wheat Farmers in Kermanshah Province. Rural Studies 6(3), 678-655.
Khosravipour, B., Mohammadzadeh, S., Monfared, N., Khosravi, O., & Soleymanpour, M, R. (2013). Determining factors affecting agricultural behaviors against the groundwater crisis (Case Study of Deir city). Rural Research, 4 (1), 47-23
Klein, R. J.T., & Smith, J.B. (2003). Enhancing the capacity of developing countries to adapt to climate change: A policy relevant research agenda, Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development. J.B. Smith, R.J.T. Klein and S. Huq, Eds., Imperial College Press, London, PP. 317-334.
Lacy S., Cleveland D., and Soleri D. (2006). Farmer Choice of Sorghum Varieties in Southern Mali, Human Ecology 34, PP. 331–353.
Maddison, D. (2007). The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 4308. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
Marshall, N. (2010). Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 36–43.
Nielsen, J., & Reenberg, A. (2010). Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change, 20, 142-152.
Pazoknejad, Z., & Salehi, S. (2014). Sociological analysis of farmers' coping with adverse effects of climate change, case study of Babolsar city. Rural Research, 5(2), 374-355.
Shushtarian, A. (2007). How will agriculture adapt to climate change? Journal of Development and Productivity. 2(3), 43-46.
Simpson, B. M. (2016). Preparing smallholder farm families to adapt to climate change. POCKET GUIDE 1 Extension Practice for agricultural adaptation. Download this publication and related material at: http://www.crs.org/our-work-overseas/research-publications/pocket-guide-1.
Smith, B., & Skinner, M. (2002). Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(1): 85–114.
Sutherland, K., Smith, B., Wulf, V., & Nakalevu, T. (2005). Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity in Samoa: the case of Saoluafata village, Tiempo, 54, PP. 11-15.
Tolooei Ashlaghi, A., & Safa Kish, M., S., (2014). Analysis and interpretation of univariate and multivariate statistical tests using SPSS. Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran.
Vincent, K. (2007). Uncertainty in Adaptive Capacity and the Importance of Scale, Global Environmental Change, 17, PP. 12–24.
UNFCCC. (2007). Climate Change: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries. A Report by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Wwheeler, S., Zuo, A., & Bjornlund, H. (2013). Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation strategies for a water scarce future in Australia. Global Environmental Change, 23(2): 537–547.
