The Effects of Climate Change on Sugar Beet Yield with an Emphasis on Crop Production Risk in Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Farm Managementعلی سردار شهرکی 1 , ندا علی احمدی 2 , نسیم صفری 3
1 - دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
2 - دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
3 - دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، شرکت آب منطقه ای اردبیل، ایران
کلید واژه: Climate Change, Production Risk, Yield function, Sugar beet, Just and Pope Function,
چکیده مقاله :
Climate change and the resulting changes in climatic parameters influence all agricultural activities. The present study aimed to explore the effect of climatic variables on sugar beet crop yield in two climates – cold climate and hot and arid climate – using the Just and Pope stochastic function. First, the most effective climatic variables on sugar beet yield were identified by the Feiveson algorithm and the Just and Pope function. Data stationarity test was applied to assess the stationarity of the included variables. The interrelationship of the dependent and independent variables was analyzed by the co-integration test. Finally, the coefficients of the Just and Pope function for sugar beet crop in two studied climates for the time period of 1998-2017 were estimated. The results of sugar beet yield function in cold regions show that sugar beet yield in cold regions was significantly influenced by acreage and maximum temperature at p<0.10 level and by minimum temperature deviation, production lag, and trend at p<0.01 level, but the variable of precipitation was significant in none of the levels. The estimation of the Just and Pope function for sugar beet crop in hot and arid regions indicates that the effects of maximum temperature, production lag, and trend are significant on sugar beet yield at p<0.05 level, but the effects of acreage, precipitation deviation, and minimum temperature deviation were insignificant. Given temperature variations and unexpected precipitation, it is recommended to encourage sugar beet farmers to use crop insurance in order to mitigate local farmers’ risk and alleviate the damages of climate change.
تغییر در وضعیت اقلیم و در نتیجه تغییر در پارامترهای اقلیمی، فعالیتهای مختلف کشاورزی را متاثر میسازد. هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی متغیرهای اقلیمی بر عملکرد محصول چغندرقند در دو اقلیم سرد و گرم و خشک میباشد. برای این منظور از تابع تصادفی جاست و پاپ استفاده شده است. در ابتدا با استفاده از الگوریتم فایوسن، موثرترین متغیرهای اقلیمی تاثیرگذار بر عملکرد محصول چغندرقند برای استفاده در تابع جاست و پاپ تعیین شدهاند. آزمون پایایی دادهها، برای ارزیابی پایایی متغیرهای مورد استفاده انجام شده است. برای بررسی وابستگی بین متغیرهای وابسته و مستقل، آزمون هم انباشتگی تحلیل شده است. در نهایت ضرایب تابع جاست و پاپ برای محصول چغندرقند در دو اقلیم سرد و گرم و خشک در طی بازه زمانی 1396- 1377 برآورد شده است. بر اساس نتایج تابع عملکرد چغندرقند در مناطق سرد، ملاحظه میگردد که متغیر سطح زیرکشت و حداکثر دما در سطح 10 درصد، متغیر انحراف حداقل دما، وقفه تولید و روند در سطح یک درصد معنیدار شده و اثرات معنیداری بر عملکرد چغندرقند در مناطق سرد دارند، اما متغیر بارش در هیچ یک از سطوح معنیدار نشدهاند. نتایج برآورد شده تابع جاست و پاپ محصول چغندرقند در مناطق گرم و خشک حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای حداکثر دما، وقفه تولید و روند در سطح پنج درصد معنیدار میباشد، و اثرات معنیداری بر میزان عملکرد چغندرقند در مناطق گرم و خشک دارند، اما سه متغیر سطح زیرکشت، انحراف بارش و انحراف حداقل دما در هیچ یک از سطوح معنیدار نشده است.
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