Effects of Climate Change on Food Expenditures of Rural Households in Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and managementعلیرضا کرباسی 1 , چیمن صیادی 2
1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
کلید واژه: Panel Data, Precipitation, temperature, Food expenditure, Rural household,
چکیده مقاله :
This study examined the effects of climate change on food expenditure in rural household of Iran. Food expenditure is investigated as a function of average income of rural households, retail food price index and food expenditure for rural households, agricultural sown area and climate change. Here, the Stata11 software is used and data are from 26 provinces of the country for 10 years. Precipitation, temperature and relative humidity are considered as indicators for climate variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of average income of rural households, retail food prices, food expenditure of rural households with a lag and precipitation on the food expenditure of rural households. Agricultural sown area and relative humidity had no effect on the food expenditure of rural households and temperature had a significant and negative effect on the food expenditure of rural households. In the end, due to the impact that each of these variables explicitly have on food expenditure of rural households and implicitly on food security of rural households, suggestions for maintaining and improving food security of rural households is presented.
این پژوهش به بررسی تغییرات آب و هوا بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی در ایران می‌پردازد. هزینه موادغذایی خانوارهای روستایی ایران به عنوان تابعی از متوسط درآمد خانوارهای روستایی، شاخص قیمت خرده فروشی مواد غذایی، هزینه موادغذایی خانوارهای روستایی، سطح زیرکشت و آب و هوا با استفاده از روش پانل پویا و نرم‌افزار Stata11برای 26 استان کشور بررسی شده است. بارندگی، دما و رطوبت نسبی به عنوان شاخصهایی برای متغیر آب و هوا در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان‌دهنده تأثیر معنی‌دار و مثبت متوسط درآمد خانوارهای روستایی، شاخص قیمت خرده فروشی مواد غذایی، هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی با یک وقفه و بارندگی بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی است، سطح زیرکشت و رطوبت نسبی بر هزینه‌های مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی اثر نداشته است و دما اثر منفی و معناداری بر هزینه‌های مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی دارد. در پایان با توجه به تأثیری که هر کدام از متغیرهای گفته شده به طور صریح بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی و بطور ضمنی بر امنیت غذایی این خانوارها دارند پیشنهادهایی برای حفظ و همچنین بهبود امنیت غذایی در خانوارهای روستایی ارائه شده است.
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