System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation to Analyze the Role of Solar Energy in Secure Access to Sustainability

محورهای موضوعی : Simulation Based Optimization

Maryam Ebrahimi ¹ (University of Bayreuth, Germany)
Nazanin Pilevari ² (Islamic azad university, West tehran branch)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/12/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/05 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/12/11

کلید واژه: System Dynamics, Sustainability, energy Security, Policy Making, Solar energy industry,

چکیده مقاله :

A truly renewable energy source, solar energy is considered within the context of climate change by various countries among which China, USA, and Germany rely more on solar power. Since there are rare studies regarding how energy drives secure access to sustainability, this study explores the role of solar energy generation in economic, social, and environmental sustainability and energy security in Iran as the main purpose. Using a system dynamics computer simulation model, this paper defines factors affecting the system including four sub-models such as energy and three aspects of sustainability. Besides, energy security is defined as the availability of adequate energy supply to satisfy existing demand. After determining a causal loop diagram, dynamic models, specific trends, and validation and simulation of the system, separate policies are presented along with a combined policy for system improvement. The policies include enhancing foreign investment, increasing tariffs of non-renewable energies, and decreasing energy intensity. This study further reviews relevant policies set forth in the USA, Germany, and China. According to the results, improvement policies are coming to an end. The main contributions are the insights into the sector to support policy-makers and finally, proposing policies for the system improvement.

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