Appraisal of industrial plans with Expected Monetary Value approach using FAHP in the ceramic and tile industry
محورهای موضوعی : Fuzzy sets theory
Masoud Merati
1
(Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
کلید واژه: Plans Evaluation, FMCDM, FAHP, Expected Monetary Value, Ceramic and Tile Industry,
چکیده مقاله :
One of the essential issues existing in the industry section and long term investments is the procedure of evaluation and selection of industrial projects. Since selection of the optimum and appropriate project, is followed by economic efficiency and conversely the failure of a project causes time and cost wastage and will be followed by huge adverse consequences. Hence, decision making in this field is complicated and various tangible, intangible, qualitative and quantitative factors are involved in it and for this reason identification, study and analysis of them is necessary. In order to evaluate the projects in this article, initially technical and financial studies are considered and analyzed and its results are posed. Technical studies include estimation of investment constant costs, estimation of the plan income, costs before usage, capital turnover and production charges and financial studies include estimation of net current value indices, internal output rate, profitability index, capital return period, break – even analysis and other factors which contribute to economic evaluation of the project. The case study in this research is construction of a tile factory which five plans which in fact involve the research options are considered with indices and various technical and economic factors which through Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Technique which is Fuzzy Multivariate Decision Making Methods, have been compared so that the best option is selected and the projects are ranked. The considered indices involve four financial indices including net current value, capital return period, investment output, sales output and the ratio of numerical break – even. The research result indicates that the projects ranking results is very close to the ranking on the basis of internal output rate.
One of the essential issues existing in the industry section and long term investments is the procedure of evaluation and selection of industrial projects. Since selection of the optimum and appropriate project, is followed by economic efficiency and conversely the failure of a project causes time and cost wastage and will be followed by huge adverse consequences. Hence, decision making in this field is complicated and various tangible, intangible, qualitative and quantitative factors are involved in it and for this reason identification, study and analysis of them is necessary. In order to evaluate the projects in this article, initially technical and financial studies are considered and analyzed and its results are posed. Technical studies include estimation of investment constant costs, estimation of the plan income, costs before usage, capital turnover and production charges and financial studies include estimation of net current value indices, internal output rate, profitability index, capital return period, break – even analysis and other factors which contribute to economic evaluation of the project. The case study in this research is construction of a tile factory which five plans which in fact involve the research options are considered with indices and various technical and economic factors which through Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Technique which is Fuzzy Multivariate Decision Making Methods, have been compared so that the best option is selected and the projects are ranked. The considered indices involve four financial indices including net current value, capital return period, investment output, sales output and the ratio of numerical break – even. The research result indicates that the projects ranking results is very close to the ranking on the basis of internal output rate.
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