تحلیل وضعیت اشتغالِ بخش های عمده اقتصادی در شهرستان های استان اردبیل
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ایهوشنگ سرور 1 , رحیم سرور 2 , سولماز سرباز گلی 3
1 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران
2 - استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران
کلید واژه: اشتغال, استان اردبیل, مدل تغییر سهم, ضریب مکانی,
چکیده مقاله :
مبحث اشتغال و به طور کلی نوع فعالیت نیروی انسانی در بخشهای مختلف از موضوعات مهم جغرافیای اقتصادی میباشد. در اقتصاد ایران اشتغال از دغدغههای اصلی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی است و همچنین بخشهای اقتصادی از ارکان توسعه هر منطقه محسوب میشود. لازمهی تدوین یک برنامه مناسب برای اشتغالزایی و توسعه پایدار منطقه، شناخت دقیق از استعدادها و توانهای بالقوه بخشها و چگونگی ترکیب آن در مناطق میباشد، تا بر اساس این شناخت برنامهریزی و اشتغالزایی متوازن و متعادلی در هریک از بخشها و مناطق ایجاد شود. این تحقیق بصورت توصیفی و تحلیلی به مطالعه وضعیت اشتغال بخشها و گروههای عمده فعالیتهای اقتصادی در مراکز شهرستانهای استان اردبیل طی سال های 90-1385 پرداخته است. مدلهای مورد استفاده در این تحقیق، مدل تغییر سهم با هدف تعیین ضریب رشد و پیش بینی وضعیت اشتغال بخشهای اقتصادی هر یک از شهرستانها، مدل ضریب مکانی برای تعیین وضعیت هر یک از بخشهای اقتصادی از نظر صادرات و واردات و همچنین محاسبه نرخ بیکاری میباشد. نتایج حاصله نشان دهنده وجود عدم تعادل بین بخشهای سه گانه اقتصادی میباشد. بطوریکه بخش خدمات در استان بصورت فزاینده رشد نموده و بر بخشهای دیگر مسلط شده است. نرخ بیکاری در استان در سال 1385 (84/12) درصد و در سال1390 به (92/16) درصد افزایش یافته است. نرخ رشد در کل اقتصاد مرجع (اردبیل) برابر 09/0 می باشد. در بین بخشهای اقتصادی استان طی سال های90-1385 بخش کشاورزی مثبت و دارای صعود بوده است. همچنین در طی سال های 90-1385 در استان بخش کشاورزی صادرکننده کالا، و جزء فعالیتهای پایهای و بخش خدمات و صنعت واردکننده کالا و جزء فعالیت غیرپایهای محسوب میشوند.
Employment and generally activity type of labor force is important topic is economic geography. Employment is the main concern for economic policy makers in the Iran economy. Economic parts are the principal components in the development of each region. In order to program development for job creation and sustainable development in the region, it is necessary the exact understanding of the potential parts and its combination in the regions, so that balanced planning and employment can be achieved in each sectors parts and regions. This research, with descriptive and analytical methodology, is the investigating employment parts and economic activity groups in the of Ardabil province cities in the 2006-20011's. Used models in this research are Shift-Share Analysis model to determine rate and Forecasting economic sectors each cities in terms of employment, Location Quotient model to determine the status of each of the economic sectors in terms of exports and imports, And also in order to calculate the unemployment rate. The results show that there is an imbalance between the three parts of the economy, which the service sector has been dominant for other parts in province. The unemployment rate in the province was 12.84 percent in 2006 and has increased to 16.92 in 2011.The growth rate in the whole reference economy of Ardabil is 0.09.In the middle of economic sectors in 2006-2011 agricultural section has been positive and ascending. Also during 2006-2011, Agricultural section was the exporter of goods and services and also was the basic activity. Services and industry sections were the importer of goods and services and the non-basic activity.
1. Ahmadi Pur,Z. Jafarzadeh,H . Mirzaie M.R. (2014). Functional analysis of country divisions in implementation of land planning programs with emphasis on Iran, Regional Planning Quarterly, 14th year, No. 14, Marvdasht, pp. 1-12[In Persian]
2. Asayesh,H (1995), Rural Economy, Tehran: Payame Noor University Press.[In Persian]
3. Bakhtiari,S.Yahia Abadi,A.(2001). Analysis of Structural Changes in Employment and the Study of the Transition of Labor between Economic Sectors of Iran.Journal of Humanities Research, University of Isfahan, No. 12, Isfahan, pp. 76-553[In Persian]
4. Center for Statistics of Iran (2011), Statistical Yearbook of Ardabil Province, Territory and Climate Section[In Persian]
5. Center of Iranian History (1385-1383), General Population and Housing Census of the Cities of Ardebil Province[In Persian]
6. Dadashpour,H.Fathejalali,A.(2013). An Analysis of Regional Specialization Patterns and Spatial Focus of Industries in Iran. Journal of Zonal Planing Third Year, No. 11, Marvdasht, pp. 18-1[In Persian]
7. Griffin, Kate, McKenley, Terry (1997), Human Development Translated by Gholamreza Khajehpour, Tehran: Wadaw Publishing.[In Persian]
8. Hekmatneia,H.Mousavi.M.N.(2013). Application of the model in geography with emphasis on urban and regional planning. Azad Peyama Publication, Third Edition, Tehran[In Persian]
9. Kazemipour, Shahla (2006), Recent and future developments in the employment and unemployment situation in Iran, with an emphasis on women's employment Condition,JOURNAL OF POPULATION ASSOCIATION OF IRAN,pp20-42[In Persian]
10. KHodaparast,M.Falahi,M.A,Salimifar,M.Haghnejad,A.(2012). Validation of Wagner's Law, and Kenzi's View for the Iranian Economy: A time series analysis. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, Vol. 12, No. 1, Tehran, pp. 1-28.[In Persian]
12. Management and Planning Organization of Ardebil Province (2012) Studies of Ardabil province planning area. Summary of findings of provincial studies. Approved by the Planning and Development Council of Ardebil province[In Persian]
13. Masoumi Ashkvari,S.H.(2006). Fundamentals of Regional Planning. Publishing Payam, Third Printing, Tehran, Iran[In Persian]
14. Mesrinejad shirin,L.torki.(2004). Analysis of employment structure In the major economic sectors of the urban areas of Iran, using the method of Shift-Share Analysis, Location Quotient. Humanities and Social Sciences Research,15,tehran,pp.109-128[In Persian]
15. Mireie,M.arefi,M.Reshnofar,A.(2016). Research on development and its inequalities in Lorestan province. Journal of Zonal Planing, Sixth year. No. 21, Marvdasht, pp. 16-1[In Persian]
16. Motie Langroudi Hasan, (2009) Iranian Economic Geography, Jahad University Press, Sixth Edition, Mashhad[In Persian]
18. Sabagh Kermani, M. 1380. Relative concentration of employment in the industrial activities of the provinces of the country.BusinessQuestionnaire.No. 17, pp. 63-85.[In Persian]
19. Sabbagh Kermani, Majid, Jamshidi, Ramadan (2001), Analysis of the growth trend of employment and its structural changes in the industrial sector and various provinces of Iran, Economic research.pp4-16 [In Persian]
20. Sarvar,R.Ashigi chahar borj,A & Alavi,S.(2016). Economics and regional inequalities(Case study of Ardabil province). Journal of Zonal Planing,Sixth year, No. 24, Marvdasht, pp. 72-59[In Persian]
21. Server,H.2008. Globalization of the economy and sustainable development of metropolitan areas(Case Study of Tehran Metropolitan Area). PhD thesis of geography and urban planning.
22. Sobhani,H.Darvishi,B.(2005). Comparative Advantage and Structural Analysis of Employment in Ilam Province. Journal of Economic Research, No. 70, pp. 188-159.[In Persian]
23. SupervisorProfessor Mahdi Pour Taheri, Tarbiat Modares University.[In Persian]
24. Todarou, Michael (1995), Economic Development in the Third World, translation by Dr. Gholamali Farjaadi, Institute for Advanced Studies in Development Planning[In Persian]
25. Zangiabadi,A.Ahangari,sh.(2012). Investigating the employment of West Azarbaijan's economic sectors using Shift-Share Analysis, Location Quotient. Geography and Environmental Studies, Year 1, No. 20, Najafabad, pp. 7-22.[In Persian]
26. Ziyari,K.(2002). Urban land use planning. Yazd University Press, Third Edition[In Persian]
27. Ziyari,K.(2009). Principles and Methods of Regional Planning, Tehran University Press, Eighth Edition,[In Persian]
_||_
