مدل‌سازی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع جرم در مناطق حاشیه‌نشینِ شهر کاشان
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
محسن شاطریان
1
(استاد گروه جغرافیا و اکوتوریسم، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
رسول حیدری
2
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا و اکوتوریسم، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
محمود شاطریان
3
(استادیار گروه حقوق، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
کامران دولتیاران
4
(کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
کلید واژه: معادلات ساختاری, جرم, حاشیه‌نشینی, آزمون تی, شهر کاشان,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه عوامل و عناصر متنوعی در بروز آسیب‌های اجتماعی و جرائم در شهرها اثرگذارند، حاشیه‌نشینی و اسکان غیررسمی از چالش‌های مهم ناشی از فقر فرهنگی و اقتصادی و عصر جهانی‌شدن می‌باشد که درشدت بخشیدن به آسیب‌های اجتماعی اهمیت بسزایی دارد، به‌طوری‌که می‌توان گفت حاشیه‌نشینی و جرم علت و معلول یکدیگرند. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع جرائم در مناطق حاشیه‌نشین شهر کاشان می‌باشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی و دارای ماهیتی کاربردی می‌باشد. حجم نمونه با استفاده از نرم افزار Sample Power 160 پرسش‌نامه برآورد گردید. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل توصیفی و استنباطی داده‌ها از آزمون آماری T-Test در نرم‌افزار SPSS و جهت تبیین و مدل‌سازی اثرات نیز از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری در نرم‌افزار AMOS استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون T تک نمونه‌ای نمایانگر معنی‌دار بودن اثرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و کالبدی با وقوع جرم در محلات حاشیه‌نشین دارد. تحلیل یافته‌های منتج از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری بیانگر این است که از بین شاخص‌های موردسنجش شاخص اجتماعی بیشترین بار عاملی را با وزن رگرسیونی (87/0) و مقدار خطای (000/0) P value = در وقوع جرائم به خود اختصاص داده است.
Nowadays, various factors and elements affect social damage and crime in the cities, informal settlement and informal settlement are one of the important challenges of cultural and economic poverty and the age of globalization, which is important in the heightening of social harm, so that it can be said that the marginalization and crime of the cause and Disabled are different. The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the factors affecting the occurrence of crimes in peripheral areas of Kashan. The research method is descriptive-analytic and has a practical nature. The sample size was estimated using Sample Power 160 questionnaire. For analyzing the descriptive and inferential statistics, t-test was used in SPSS software. Structural equation modeling in AMOS software was used to explain and model the effects. The results of single-sample t-test showed significant social, economic, cultural and physical effects of crime in marginalized neighborhoods. Analysis of the results of structural equation modeling shows that among the indexed indicators, the social index has the highest factor load with regression weight (0.87) (p value = 000 / p value =) in the occurrence of crimes.
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
Attention to the crime and its roots in the major cities is one of the Interests in various fields such as urban geography, urban sociology, social ecology, environmental criminology, and criminology. More criminal events occurring in areas where land features, amenities and possess a certain population. The Industrial Revolution led to the influx of urban migrants in the world, the group attacked the outskirts of marginalization provides field built and it has become a problem for everyone in the world. Investigation shows that the marginalization of these areas has always been the main center of deviations, the incidence of social ills and crime and those that threaten the security of cities. Marginalization is end modern industrial civilization and is one of the manifestations of rapid urbanization. Marshall Klynard in defining cultural marginalization says with a set of values and norms Khrdh marginalization in neighborhoods with poor hygiene, social deviations and other features such as social isolation is associated. The first time the relationship between crime and the built environment design and urban planning in the field of book Death and Life of Great America Cities by Jane Jacobs was raised. He stressed that the diversity of land use and a high level of pedestrian activity is an opportunity to monitor natural (unofficial) are the most important feature is neighborhood safety. Shaw and McKay believe that the high levels of instability, ethnic diversity and economic losses with low levels of social cohesion and informal social control there is a positive correlation neighborhood. In other words, social stigma about it discusses how the inhabitants of a neighborhood, to maintain order in society organize. This theory holds that crime happens to cluster in areas that have three key characteristics including low socio-economic base, ethnic heterogeneity, and is residential mobility and high population density. Density and instability, population, social network Urban impair makes ethnic diversity leads to a lack of effective communication community members together and ultimately poor resident’s sources of capital and little to change their environment to the instability help and this high rate of crime and delinquency lead. In other words, neighborhoods with high crime rates and cultural socio-economic base of those who are not in good condition, demographics are not so homogenous distribution and high density.The city of Kashan, consequently the rapid expansion of urbanization phenomenon of marginalization in the old neighborhoods and surrounding areas faced. This study seeks to answer the question of the relationship between socio-economic, cultural and physical characteristics of marginalized and commit crimes there.
Methodology:
This research is a descriptive and analytical survey. Collection tools in this study, library, athletics, and use of scientific resources related organizations. Random sampling. The data collected by means of a questionnaire that forms the background check and the related literature and related Parameters collection centers and marginalized Kashan crime is regulated.
The results of each test are shown in separate tables. The population of the research areas covered by the marginal areas, including households located in neighborhoods Lthr, pumps and Gazrgah Farmhouse, Arab neighborhoods and towns that have a population of 9,500 people in February twenty-two picks. The sample power of software to determine sample size used with regard to alpha 0.5, 0.95and be 0.82 confidence level and one-sided test sample size of 160 was calculated. To analyze the data, descriptive and inferential statistical tests T-Test in SPSS software and to explain and model the effects of structural equation modeling was used in AMOS software.
Results and discussion:
The first hypothesis social factors of crime in the marginalized areas assessed, in order to measure meaningful social effects of crime in the marginalized regions of one sample T-test was used. As is evident in all social indicators on crime in urban areas and increase the effectiveness of a variety of crimes. The results of tests T Table 2 shows the elements of the crime of statements of unemployment, population density, friendships, bad, violence, dropping out of school, social, family, education, harassment, divorce and lack of educational services affecting many according to the charges, and higher mean of mediocrity, the indicators are generally different underlying crimes. The second hypothesis examined the economic effects of crime in Kashan is excluded. The results of T-test one sample Table (3) to measure economic variables and their role in the crime shows that if you specify all subtypes of these items, including lack of investment, lack of income, nutrition inaccurate, lack of expertise, burgundy infrastructure, buying allow 5% significant relationship between economic factors and crime. The third hypothesis to investigate the effects of body mass in squatter areas of Kashan's results of T-test one sample for Table (4) shows that inadequate housing lack of lighting, lack of recreation, tissue aging, lack of sanitation, poor design of buildings lack Fencing, no warning signs, no buildings, all the crime and the high mean effective due to the number of mediocrity (3) represents the hypothesis of the study, the significance of the relationship between physical and crime. The results obtained show that the second-order factor model of social factors accounted for the highest load factor weighing 0.87and most of the other factors that affect crime. After the cause of social, physical and cultural factors are the common factor loadings vary from 850 in the second and third. Finally, the economic factor load factor affecting crime indices 0.78 in fourth place in Kashan were excluded; So it can be said that among the four factors of social crime in urban areas most affected elements of the crime. The burden of the social index marker hypothesis is confirmed.
Conclusion:
This study examines the relationship between marginalization and crime in high crime neighborhoods in the city of Kashan in relation to social, economic, cultural and physical. In this regard, four hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis of the role of social factors on crime in the city of Kashan analyzed that due to the higher index (3.66) of the standard value (3) indicates the significance of the relationship between crime and marginalization and social factors the first hypothesis was accepted. The second hypothesis to evaluate the economic indicators relating to the offenses and according to the comparison with a significance level of 5% results showed the significant alpha level of crime is related to marginalization and economic factors and the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis regarding marginalization and physical factors of the crime and marginalization test results showed a significant relationship between body mass index is associated with the hypothesis was confirmed. The fourth hypothesis cultural indices of crime examined the results of T-test one sample showed that due to the significant level (sig) in comparison with 95% and the amount of error of 5% cultural factors averaging 3.61 on crime in the area affected and the significance of the relationship between marginalization and crime fourth hypothesis was confirmed. Overall, one-sample T-test results indicated that a direct relationship between crime and marginalization are four indices And the average of all indices studied is equal to 62/3 from the middle (number 3) was higher, indicating a high crime situation in the studied areas. Also, structural equation modeling was used to identify the variables and factors affecting the occurrence of different crimes. According to the findings of the second-order factor model, the results showed that the social factor had the highest factor load (0.87) and then physical factors. And cultural, with regression weights of 0.85 in the second and third, and economic variable with the factor of 0.76 in fourth.
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