تحلیل فضایی عوامل اثرگذار بر قیمت مسکن در کلانشهر تهران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

احمد حاجی حیدری ¹ , بختیار عزت پناه ² , ابوالفضل مشکینی ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.
3 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/10/03 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/02/09 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/10/01

کلید واژه: مسکن, کلانشهر تهران, عرضه و تقاضا, رانت, نوسان اقتصادی,

چکیده مقاله :

در بین مناطق مختلف شهر تهران نقش متمایز و پر رنگ چند منطقه پر رونق و پردرآمد شمال جغرافیایی با حجم بالای ساخت و ساز و خرید و فروش، نقش پیشران قیمت را به عنوان اولین فرضیه مطالعه حاضر و عوامل مؤثر بر سطح تقاضا و عرضه مطرح می‌کند این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش توصیفی ـ‌ تحلیلی است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیک آمار فضایی در محیط Arc GIS اقدام به تحلیل و بررسی موضوع شد. برای استخراج داده‌های مورد استفاده در این بخش از آمار و اطلاعات مرکز آمار کشور و مطالعات طرح تفصیلی مناطق (کاربری اراضی شهری) همچنین گزارش‌های بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، اداره کل آمارهای اقتصادی (1396-1385)، گزارش اوضاع اقتصادی و اجتماعی کشور، نتایج بررسی فعالیت‌های ساختمانی در مناطق شهری تهران و نتایج آمارگیری هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری و محاسبات نگارندگان و تبدیل آن به داده‌های مقطعی استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج آزمون موران وجود اثرات فضایی در تفاوت قیمت مسکن در مناطق ۲۲گانه کلانشهر تهران با سه فاکتور فاصله‌، درجه تمرکز و عامل توپوگرافی در سطح معناداری بالایی تأیید می‌شود. مطابق نتایج ضریب خودهمبستگی فضایی شوک نوسانی قیمت وارد بر یک منطقه، به دیگر مناطق کلانشهر تهران نیز سرایت کرده است. به عبارت دیگر در ضریب خودهمبستگی فضایی از میان 521556 واحد کاربری مسکونی در سطح محلات و مناطق کلانشهر تهران مشاهده می‌شود که نوسان قیمت و دامنه آن به شدت تابعی از عامل توپوگرافی و کلیشه بالاشهر ـ پایین شهر در ادبیات عامیانه اقتصاد شهری است. به طوری که از میان ۳۷۴ محله مورد بررسی در سطح مناطق ۲۲گانه مناطق ۱، ۳،۲،۶، ۵ و ۴ بالاترین قیمت مسکونی و مناطق ۱۲، ۱۵، ۱۸، ۱۱ و ۱۶ کمترین دامنه نوسان و پایین‌ترین وضعیت قیمت مسکن را در دهه مورد بررسی ۸۵ ـ 95 تجریه کرده‌اند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Among the different areas of Tehran, the distinctive and colorful role of several thriving and high-income areas in the north with high volume of construction and sales, the role of price drivers as the first hypothesis of the present study and factors affecting the level of demand and supply. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. In this research, using spatial statistics technique in Arc GIS environment, the subject was analyzed and studied. To extract the data used in this section from the statistics and information of the Statistics Center of the country and studies of detailed plans of regions (urban land use) as well as reports of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, General Directorate of Economic Statistics (2006-2017), economic and social situation report. The results of the study of construction activities in urban areas of Tehran and the results of statistics on the cost and income of urban households and the authors' calculations and its conversion into cross-sectional data have been used. According to the results of Moran test, the existence of spatial effects on the difference in housing prices in the 22 districts of Tehran metropolis with three factors of distance, degree of concentration and topographic factor is confirmed at a high level of significance. According to the results of the spatial autocorrelation coefficient, the price fluctuation shock in one area has spread to other areas of Tehran metropolis. In other words, in spatial autocorrelation coefficient, among 521556 residential land use units in the neighborhoods and areas of Tehran metropolis, its price fluctuation and amplitude is strongly a function of the topography and stereotype of Balashahr-Paeinshahr in the popular literature of urban economics. So that among the 374 neighborhoods surveyed in the 22 regions of regions 1, 3, 2, 6, 5 and 4, the highest housing prices and regions 12, 15, 18, 11 and 16 have the lowest range of fluctuations and the lowest housing prices in the decade. Experimented 85-95.

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