پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم در کشاورزی و ارتباط آن با رانت شالیکاران (مطالعه موردی استان مازندران)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

حمید امیرنژاد ¹ (دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.)
عاطفه عمویی ² (دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.)
سید مجتبی مجاوریان ³ (دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/06/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/10/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1398/01/01

کلید واژه: تغییر اقلیم, استان مازندران, رانت شالیکاران, رهیافت ریکاردین, گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته,

چکیده مقاله :

تغییر اقلیم همه بخش­های اقتصادی را تا اندازه­ای تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد، اما بخش کشاورزی شاید حساس­ترین و آسیب­پذیرترین بخش باشد چراکه محصولات کشاورزی وابستگی زیادی به منابع اقلیمی دارند. در این مطالعه سعی شده است تا با تبیین تئوریک و طراحی یک مدل در چارچوب رهیافت ریکاردین و با استفاده از تکنیک داده­های پانل پویا مبتنی بر روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته، اثر تغییر اقلیم (تغییرات دما، بارندگی و رطوبت) بر تولید برنج و سود به­عنوان معیاری از رانت شالیکاران شهرستان­های استان مازندران در دوره 1390-1379 مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان دادند متغیرهای اقلیمی اثرات معنی­دار و غیرخطی بر تولید هر هکتار و رانت شالیکاران دارد به­گونه‌ای که در شهرستان­ ساری بیش‌ترین رانت منفی (5108220- ریال در هکتار) و در شهرستان نوشهر کم‌ترین رانت منفی (1601270- ریال در هکتار) بدست آمد. افزایش دمای فصل بهار و تابستان اثری مثبت بر رانت داشته و هرگاه از کم‌ترین مقدار بحرانی کم‌تر شود، رانت منفی می­شود. با توجه به دمای فصل تابستان، بیش‌ترین رانت بدست آمده مربوط به شهرستان ساری، 154372 ریال در هکتار و کم‌ترین آن مربوط به شهرستان نوشهر، 6084 ریال در هکتار می­باشد. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده و هم‌چنین، ادامه روند افزایش دما و کاهش بارندگی پیشنهاد می­شود اتخاذ سیاست­های حمایتی دولت برای افزایش انگیزه زارعین در استفاده بهینه از منابع آب مورد توجه سیاست­گزاران و برنامه­ریزان قرار گیرد. طبقه‌بندی JEL: Q1, Q5, Q54

چکیده انگلیسی:

In this study, it was tried that by theoretically elaboration and designing a model in form of Ricardian model and using panel data approach based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, the effects of climate change on production and profit as a measure of rice producer rent within cities of Mazandaran province during the period 1990-2011. Results of this study showed that the climate variables have significantly non-linear impacts on Rice production and cultivation area rent. Within cities where cultivation temperature has been effective on farmers’ rent, Sari has the most negative rents (-5108220, Rial per hectare) than other cities and the Noshahr has least negative rent (-1601270, Rial per hectare). Enhancing spring and summer temperatures have positive effect on rent, and once it becomes less than critical value, rent would be negative. Due to the temperature in summer, the highest rent achieved in the Sari (154372, Rial per hectare) and the lowest was Noshahr with 6084 Rial per hectare. rent and by increasing this factor, rent would alleviate.

منابع و مأخذ:

 

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