شاخص‌هایی برای سرمایه طبیعی: روند تغییرات و پیش‌بینی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیعلیرضا کشاورز 1 , زکریا فرج زاده 2 , محمدحسن طرازکار 3
1 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
2 - استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
3 - استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
کلید واژه: پیش‌بینی, ردپای اکولوژیکی, ظرفیت اکولوژیکی, تناسب اکولوژیکی- اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
این مطالعه با هدف معرفی، تحلیل روند و ارزیابی امکان پیش‌بینی این شاخص‌ها در اقتصاد ایران انجام شد. برای این منظور از داده-های سری‌زمانی دوره 94-1359 استفاده شد. شاخص‌های معرفی‌شده برای سرمایه طبیعی شامل ردپای اکولوژیکی، ظرفیت اکولوژیکی، تنش اکولوژیکی، تصرف اکولوژیکی و تناسب اکولوژیکی- اقتصادی می‌باشد. یافته‌ها نشان داد، شاخص ردپای اکولوژیکی به‌عنوان مهم-ترین شاخص، در دوره منتخب سالانه بیش از ۲ درصد رشد داشته است. در میان اجزای این شاخص نیز بیش‌ترین سهم مربوط به انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن بود. درحالی که مشخص گردید شاخص ظرفیت اکولوژیکی در دوره مطالعه کاهش داشته و پایین‌تر از ردپای اکولوژیکی قرار گرفته است؛ به نحوی که کسری اکولوژیکی ایجاد شده است. هم-چنین شاخص تنش اکولوژیکی نشان داد، در مجموع خدمات دریافتی از طبیعت و محیط‌زیست فراتر از توان آن و بالاتر از متوسط جهانی بوده؛ به نحوی که موجب افزایش ناامنی اکولوژیکی شده است. هم‌چنین نتایج حاصل از پیش-بینی نشان داد، دقت پیش‌بینی مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی بالاتر از مدل سری‌زمانی ARMA می‌باشد و امکان پیش-بینی اغلب شاخص‌های منتخب با خطای کمتر از 3 درصد وجود دارد.
The current study aim is to introduce, analyze and examine the possibility of forecasting these indices in Iranian economy. To get the objective, time series data for 1980-2015 were applied. The introduced indices for natural capital are ecological footprint, biological capacity, ecological tension, ecological occupancy, and ecological-economic coordination. The findings showed that ecological footprint as the main index has experienced an annual growth of 2 percent. In terms of the contribution, carbon dioxide accounts for the most part of the ecological footprint growth. On the other hand, biological capacity showed a decreasing trend over the study horizon such that it has been exceeded by ecological footprint, giving rise to an ecological deficit. The ecological tension index showed that services demanded from the environment have exceeded its capacity as well as those of the global average, leading to ecological insecurity. The forecasting results also indicated a higher forecasting ability for neural network model compared to the ARMA one, providing forecasts with errors of as low as less than 3 percent for the most of the indices.
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