پیش‌بینی تقاضای گوشت قرمز در ایران(کاربرد الگوی (ARIMAX

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

رضا مقدسی ¹ (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران)
رباب محسن پور ² (دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1394/09/26 تاریخ پذیرش : 1394/09/26 تاریخ انتشار : 1391/04/01

کلید واژه: پیش‌بینی, گوشت قرمز, فرآیند ARIMAX,

چکیده مقاله :

گوشت یکی از مهم ترین منابع تأمین پروتئین است که برای سرمایه گذاری و برنامه ریزی در جهت تولید آن نیاز به پیش بینی تقاضای مصرف گوشت در آینده می باشد. لذا در این مقاله تلاش گردید تا با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی برای دوره ی 1386.4-1367.1 عملکرد دو الگوی ARIMA و ARIMAX به منظور پیش بینی تقاضای سرانه گوشت قرمز مورد مقایسه قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان داد که پیش بینی حاصل از فرآیند ARIMAX دقیق تر می باشد. لذا به کارگیری همزمان اطلاعات مصرف سرانه ی گوشت قرمز و برخی متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر آن به افزایش دقت پیش بینی کمک می نماید.  

چکیده انگلیسی:

Meat is an important source of animal protein in Iranian diet. Therefore, accurate estimate of meat demand for future, could lead to more realistic planning of import. This paper aims to evaluate two common methods which applied in forecasting economic variables, namely ARIMA and ARIMAX to predict red meat demand using quarterly data over period of 1988-2005. Results showed better performance of ARIMAX method based on conventional criteria

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